Holbrooke's Last Act of Service on Afghanistan

As reported by the Washington Post, these were Richard Holbrooks’s last words,

As Mr. Holbrooke was sedated for surgery, family members said, his final words were to his Pakistani surgeon: “You’ve got to stop this war in Afghanistan.”

More than anything else, these last words shed light on the problem we have in AFG today; there is a large conceptual gulf between wanting to “stop this war” and “win this war.” Our Political leadership is on the wrong side of that gulf.

It is that gulf that is causing the feeling that the ground slipping under us in AFG. By pointing this out before his death – Holbrooke gives his nation an opportunity to talk about the direction and world view of the Administration he served.

Since the President’s West Point speech announcing his calendar based withdrawal under fire scheduled for JUL11, we have seen SECDEF Gates, CJCS Mullen, and Gen. Petraeus try to open some intellectual space for the CINC to back out of his statement. Never in military history has a non-conditions based withdrawal under fire resulted in victory.

With the recent announcement of a 2014 date – the new JUL11 – we have seen a rescheduling of the withdrawal – but a calendar based and not conditions based withdrawal. That is how the enemy sees it, spin not withstanding. Once you tell your enemy you plan to leave one way or another based on an artificial timetable, you have advertised your lack of will. In war, will is primary – with NATO led by the Dutch and Canadians heading for the door, this only makes it worse and builds momentum for defeat.

When you show lack of will to a weaker enemy, they are no longer weaker. They don’t need to expend all their blood and treasure trying to defeat you – all they need to do is wait you out and then take action when condition are better; i.e. you’re gone.

Once weakness is advertised, those you are there to help will focus less on winning, and more on making sure they transfer funds out of town – or start to make accommodations with the strong horse – in this case the Taliban.

The indications are there. Money is moving out; sectarian militia are rearming getting ready for civil war. All because of the Obama Administration’s world view is undermining our Strategic Center of Gravity.

Good people – patriotic people – can also be wrong. Holbrooke’s world view is not one that sees victory. He had been living off the myth of Dayton so long, he thought it could be applied everywhere. There is very little at the Tactical, Operational, or Strategic level – much less the Political – that was learned in the Balkans that can be applied in the Hindu Kush – but people will try.

Sad thing is; the surge that was planned and began execution in ’08 is now producing the conditions desired on the ground. It isn’t too late for AFG. The military has bought time for the Political side to work – if they will. It has opened the opportunity to secure the Strategic Center of Gravity – the will of the people of the West to support the AFG people, and the AFG people themselves.

However, the right Political leadership is needed in order to take advantage of what the military has been able to accomplish on the ground. That is lacking, and it shows.

We are creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. If we stick with the present course at the Political level – AFG is lost. We need serious change in direction that is focused long-term, and focused on a victory defined roughly as AFG is no longer a safe haven for those who would bring war to the West.

The war in AFG is like no other we have been involved in – it is also nothing like the British and Soviet experience. If we leave AFG anywhere short of victory, we will not leave the problem there. After hundreds of thousands die in a civil war, al Qaeda will, rightly, be able to declare victory against the West. They will grow in influence and ability – and they will come at us with renewed vigor and dedication. You could blot out the sun with drones after we leave and will not be able to contain them. You can kill leader after leader, and more will come. Like sports, war has momentum. They will hit Europe first and hardest – and then hit the USA as they can.

If we focus on “ending” and not “winning” – that is what we should expect to happen. That will be the final End State – one that someone else will have to take as Initial Conditions and fix. We cannot walk away from this war.

If we aren’t in this to win, then what are we doing? If we define victory as leaving a year before a civil war breaks out, then what are we trying to achieve? Remember – the Soviets did not cross the Friendship Bridge under fire.

Want to know why the American public is souring on AFG? It is because they instinctively feel the lack of leadership at the top. They can sniff failure, and want nothing to do with it – the latest policy review does not help.

Watch who replaces Holbrooke. Read their writing and background – and hope the President chooses well.