Leaked documents from America’s leftist enemies generally seek to undercut America’s military power. In some respects the new material dumped across the internet and news outlets of America did that. This sad and treasonous behavior will no doubt make it more difficult for the United States to conduct diplomacy or to seek and get the cooperation of our allies.
But the documents also confirm what many American defense hawks have long suspected. Iran’s missile capabilities are growing rapidly. Tehran bought nineteen North Korean long-range BM-25 rockets, with a range of some 4000 kilometers, based on Russian designs of submarine launched missiles.
Now a month ago David Fulghum of Aviation Week disclosed the new Pyongyang missile. He noted:
Israeli officials in particular have noted the first public emergence in North Korea of the BM-25/Musudan, a weapon that Israeli officials say has already been delivered to Iran. It is the first time the road-mobile, liquid-fueled intermediate range ballistic missile has been shown…
He further explained the missile is a derivative of the Russian SS-N-6 submarine launched ballistic missile and may have been test-flown in Iran. “The range is estimated between 3000 km to 4000 km depending on warhead mass.”
The leaked material confirms what Israel missile defense expert retired General Uzi Rubin has been saying for years. The missile cooperation between North Korea and Iran is extensive. Tehran now has the ability to stage its rockets as well as deploy solid-fueled missiles. Rubin has repeatedly warned that Iran now probably exceeds North Korea in its rocket capabilities, and with these new capabilities can now threaten most of Europe.
This is what is very important. For a threat of 500 – 3000 kilometers, the Navy deployed Standard Missile (SM) 3 (Block 1B and IIA) and the Israeli Arrow 3 will do. For 3000 – 7000 kilometer missile threats, the new Iran capability, a defense at least as capable as the US built two-stage Ground Based Interceptor is necessary. That was the joint Polish-American system we canceled.
Since such Iranian missile capability appears to be “here and now”, even the Bush administration’s projected deployment date of 2013-15 for the GBI in Poland would have come shortly after the Iranians purchased the BM-25 North Korean missiles.
An advanced “to be developed” Navy standard missile capable of dealing with Iranian missile threats with ranges greater than 3000 kilometers is the future “name of the game.” But such a deployment is scheduled only for late in this decade at the earliest.
In short, Houston, we have a problem. And it may be even worse than the leaked cables reveal. The USAF says Iran will have an ICBM capability by 2015 along with an ability to mate such missiles with nuclear weapons.
In short, we are living on borrowed time. Our defense clock is not keeping pace with Iran or North Korea’s threat clock.
What affect will this have? One pundit worries: “[T]he WikiLeaks fiasco crystallizes…a new challenge: Restoring the sense that the United States can effectively project its power.”
He was arguing that the leaked documents revealed an America unable to deliver a deal on Kyoto and global warming. We appeared weak. True.
But the real problem? Iran, North Korea, China and Russia all are working to enhance Tehran’s hegemonic missile capabilities to prevent exactly that–the projection of American power.
This new confirmation of Iran’s growing missile capabilities undermines the narrative on missile defense just recently pushed by the New York Times, for example. The Times says we have made real progress in the recent NATO agreement on missile defenses–which we have. But they say current technology is being used to the maximum extent possible in current planned missile defense deployments–not true.
Unfortunately, we have slowed or delayed or canceled some of our missile defense technology. On the other hand, Iran’s capability to launch rockets is being enhanced. They are going forward, rapidly.
Many missile defense critics repeatedly claimed Western European areas–including such cities as London, Bonn and Paris–were safe from Iranian missile threats. That is the reason the planned deployment of GBI’s in Poland was cancelled.
But the leaked documents vividly illustrate that we really do need a European and American defense from long-range Iranian rockets. What we need is a very fast missile interceptor. Our two-stage ground-based interceptor to defend the western European portions of NATO does the job. So would a Navy SM with a speed of 4.5+ kilometers a second. We have tested the former; we are developing the latter. Let’s deploy what we have now.
We know Iran’s terrorism in the Middle East is of the same cloth of the North Korean shelling of the Republic of Korea or its sinking of a South Korean naval vessel. Tehran’s missiles serve the same purpose as Pyongyang’s bombs.
We thus face a choice. The US can seek to curry favor with both tyrants in power in Pyongyang and Tehran and “seek a deal.” We can continue too believe that killing citizens of the ROK is somehow, as former President Carter said, simply a message that North Korea is in pursuit of “respect,” kind of a new 10-step program that involves murder, mayhem and even more murder.
Or we can recognize both Iran and North Korea are in the business of aggression and terror. In one leaked document, the head of Saudi Arabia is quoted as saying America needs to go to Tehran and “cut off the head of the snake.” Good idea. The second stop should be Pyongyang. Faster, please.