What is North Korea Up To?

North Korea has shelled a remote island killing two South Korean marines and now there is talk of war breaking out on the Korean peninsula. What is North Korea really up to?

Contrary to what some are saying, this is not likely the first volley in an attack. By choosing to strike a remote island, Pyongyang destroyed any opportunity for surprise. Had they wanted to attack the South, they would have hit valuable targets–even Seoul–and mobilized all of their ground forces.

The fact that the North Koreans have fired these shells days after announcing they have another nuclear reactor online indicates that their real objective here is to garner the attention of the West. Unlike Iran, which has worked with stealth to develop its nuclear weapons program, the North Koreans have always loudly proclaimed their atomic advancements. Why? Unlike Iran, which has oil to lubricate its economy, North Korea has nothing. It needs aid from the West or it risks economic collapse. So it blusters and makes threats. Pyongyang sees its nuclear program as a way to gain leverage over the West. The shelling of South Korea is more akin to a temper tantrum designed to get the attention of the West than a serious military move.

So how should we respond? Both ignoring their actions and giving them the aid they seek gives them what they want and rewards their behavior. Having lost strategic surprise, we need to take this opportunity to punish the North Korean government for what they have done. Now would be the right time to contemplate and carry out limited military strikes on the infrastructure of the North Korean government. Or more specifically, to strike at the heart of their nuclear capabilities. Doing nothing will only encourage more of the same behavior. And giving them aid in response to this temper tantrum will embolden them further.

Your thoughts?