Obama's Failure Could Encourage his Plans for a Palestinian State

The huge Republican gain in the mid-term elections diminished significantly President Obama’s political influence domestically and internationally.

Domestically, the new Republican majority in the House of Representatives is likely to limit Obama’s ability to implement his economic and entitlement policies.

Obama’s defeat also reinforces the already widespread international contempt for this Administration’s lack of resolve. This deterioration could nevertheless spur this ambitious president to leave his mark on world affairs.

Withdrawing from Afghanistan and appeasing the Taliban, North Korea, Iran and Venezuela will not suffice. But perusing the ill-conceived “peace plan” in the Middle East – pressuring Israel to freeze construction in areas claimed by the Palestinians, give up large parts of its territory, and recognize Hamas – seem to fit the bill.

The general opinion in Israel seems to support the notion that the changes in the House will do little to change Obama’s aspiration to create a Palestinian state.

Former Israeli Foreign Minister and current opposition leader, Tzipi Livni seized the opportunity of the mid-term American congressional election results to further meddle in U.S. and Israeli relations, claiming that the Democrats’ loss, a personal defeat for Obama – was welcomed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government. In a special speech she declared: “To those of you who believe that the loss of Obama is good for Netanyahu, have you gone crazy?”

After strongly denouncing Livni, Nethnyahu’s office issued a statement saying: “The prime minister will continue working closely with President Obama and his administration in order to promote peace, as well as interests and values shared by Israel and the United States.” Netanyahu, who is expected in the U.S. next week, will meet with Vice President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, but not with Obama, who will be in Asia.

The expected changes in key positions in the House, that of the new Whip, Eric Cantor (Va) – the only Jewish Republican in the House, and the new Foreign Affairs Chairman, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (Fl), are likely to garner more ardent support for Israel. They will be following the example of current majority leader Stanley Hoyer (D-Md) and Foreign Affairs Chairman Howard Berman (Ca), who are constant supporters of the Jewish state.

With Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen at the helm of the Foreign Affairs Committee, and a majority of Republicans sympathetic to Israel’s democratic capitalist system and security concerns, we could anticipate better understanding in the House of foreign policies that will serve U.S. interests and support Israel’s security vis-à-vis the Palestinians – including Hamas, Syria and Iran.

One hopes that the Republican House will use its power of the purse to constrain Obama’s ability to spend American taxpayers’ money on foreign aid to the bottomless Palestinian money pit. The Europeans, Saudis and Iran – all funders of the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, and proponents of an independent Palestinian state, will happily take over the U.S. role. But Obama will do his best to keep his position as the “peace-maker.”

He will continue to ignore the Palestinians repeated declarations in their Arabic language propaganda that Israel doesn’t have the right to exist. He will continue to turn a blind eye to their children television shows which are filled with programs calling for jihad and killing Jews. Instead, Obama will continue to argue that it is possible to reason with people who insist on killing you.

Most Palestinians demands have been met by this, and previous American Administrations. They received billions of dollars in aid and successfully generated pressure on Israel for further harmful concessions. The Palestinians have gotten used to claiming that Israel is the obstacle for peace, and subsequent American Administrations, and in particular this Administration, went along with the charade, blaming the Israelis. Yet, Obama’s plans for peace in the Middle East, and his approach towards Israel, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan did not win him friends or respect in the Arab/Muslim world.

But a weak Obama at home should not be underestimated. He would surely use his office to exert significant power abroad, and perhaps force Israel to make dangerous concessions.

Rachel Ehrenfeld is director of the NYC based American Center for Democracy.