Is This a Possibility? 3d Party a Possible Win in Colorado?

Rummaging thru all the reports online, I come up with the following story, in the Denver Post of all places:

“Tom Tancredo, John Suthers will win; GOP will retake Colorado House, Senate.”

Unreal. This is a result from a Magellan poll, based in Louisville, CO that has been calling my house/cell almost weekly for the last 8 months. Some of their poll questions were unreal- ”Are you really going to vote for Candidate X?” after it asks me my preferences and my perception of a particular state race. Never had that question come up before.

While my predictions may go along with the statement above, it is an extremely tight race in the top offices here in Colorado. Even in the primaries, it was back and forth the entire time. One footnote- money, up until the last 3 weeks, has not been a good indicator of who the ‘real’ candidates were. My candidate that I helped run never put up much money, and therefore could not garner ‘belief’ that he was viable. He learned that this was a mistaken approach- even if he’d thrown in a few million, and let it sit, it would have given the PERCEPTION he was going to be viable. And, at points, that’s all it takes.

The weather here today is gorgeous- which bodes well for Dems at least cutting the margins a bit- possibly taking a few races the other direction than late polls indicate. Don’t believe that? Read this extensive look at weather and voter turnout; Mr Tony spent considerable research time ferreting it out.

10 issues that Denver Post puts out as being key in CO- they are reflective of several races across the US:

1. Will the Senate battle between Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet and Republican Ken Buck be among the closest in the country, as polls have predicted in recent weeks, or will it break comfortably for the Republican, as Buck and a handful of polls have suggested in recent days? [My take is that Buck will win, but of all the races, this may be the most likely to go down to a re-count]

2. Does the Republican wave expected to sweep the country take out Democratic Reps. Betsy Markey in the 4th Congressional District, John Salazar in the 3rd and Ed Perl mutter in the 7th? [One can only HOPE this is the case; throw in the Bailey/Polis race in CO 2 and it would be wonderful; not likely given that CO2 is anchored in The People’s Republic of Boulder, but, if the turnout is good, it could happen. That district has a large amount of un-affiliated voters. Just a note- Polis was the hack that flew himself in to Baghdad to see what the war ‘was all about’ but NEVER LEFT THE AIRPORT. And, has declared in campaign stops that one of his top 3 objectives is to ‘help the gays of Iraq gain more support and acceptance in their communities’. No lie. Spending our tax money on this. ]

3. Does the adage “whoever wins Jeffco wins the election” hold true for the U.S. Senate and governor’s races? [Not so much in this race- JeffCo has been a bit more fractured than other elections recently. TEA party strength seems to be more of a factor]

4. Which pollsters are right: those showing Democrat John Hickenlooper winning in the governor’s race by 5 or more percentage points, or those showing American Constitution Party candidate Tom Tancredo poised to pull off the upset? [Again, as tight as it can get. But, after tonight, I’ll give you a blow-by-blow on what the REAL impact will be, depending on percentages. Maes is showing less than 6% on most polls- that is troubling for the GOP- see next item]

5. The polls agree that Republican nominee Dan Maes will finish a distant third in the governor’s race. But will Maes get less than 10 percent of the vote, leaving the Colorado GOP destined for the bottom of the ballot and hampered in fundraising in upcoming elections?

6. Will Republicans pick up the net four seats needed to wrest control of the state Senate from Democrats, who hold a 21-14 edge, or will Democrats maintain their six-year hold on the chamber? [CO GOP takes both CO houses- even though I voted for a DEM in my state senate district. That candidate votes their district, not the party, and has shown that.]

7. Will Democrats successfully defend their 37-27-1 majority in the state House, or will Republicans pick up the net six seats they need to retake control of the House, which they relinquished in 2004?

8. What impact will the Tea Party movement have in Colorado’s general election and across the nation?[TEA party here is somewhat fractured, but has some good leaders among TEA and 9/12 groups. Some areas, like Broomfield, have real issues that I hope get sorted out or they will be finished here]

9. Will the campaign mounted by a coalition of Republicans, Democrats, labor and business interests be successful in fighting the so-called “Ugly Three” — Amendments 60 and 61 and Proposition 101 — brought to the ballot by former GOP state Rep. Douglas Bruce? [Most definitely- their spending has been prodigious in getting these amendments blocked. More than 10-1 in ad buys across the board. Another note- Dems and Dem support groups have out-spent GOP candidates on airtime by at least 3-1 margin. ]

10. Will Denver voters pass Initiative 300, which would create the world’s first government-sanctioned extraterrestrial-affairs commission? [If they are gonna elect a new mayor, they are going to have to pass this initiative.]

I mentioned to the Big Peace editors earlier that the polls were quite crowded in the 3 northern CO sites I visited; lines were long, but steadily moving. Voting was very quick. I saw no issues on the machine I used and it accurately reflected my votes without problems. It didn’t take long to actually process, but I followed issues closely and knew what I wanted to do; if you’d have had to read all the issues at the machine, it would certainly have taken longer. Quite a few people I noticed in line were just then reviewing the wording of the issues.

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