The Biggest Threat We Face…May Be Next Door

Our attention is largely focused half way around the world—Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq and the Middle East. The threat from Islamist terrorism is real. But largely overlooked in my mind is the problem posed by a security threat next door, namely the possible implosion of Mexico. For years, the Mexican government has exported people (by encouraging illegal immigration) so as to keep a lid on the chronic social problems it faces. The economy has been weak and sending millions north of the border relieves pressure. But with the American economy sputtering, that option is not working nearly as well. At the same time Mexico faces huge problems with drug lords and criminal gangs which have subverted elements of the Mexican military and act with impunity when it comes to kidnappings and the murder of their opponents.

How will it all end? Fourteen years ago I co-wrote a book with the late Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger called The Next War. It offered a glimpse into the sorts of wars that our military might be called on to fight in the future. By far the most controversial was a scenario that involved the implosion of the Mexican government, leading to social chaos and the specter of millions upon millions of Mexicans fleeing to the United States in search of food. It was not a pretty picture. In our scenario, the American President is forced to send in the United States military to stabilize the government and restore the peace.

We are certainly not their yet and Mexico can certainly still turn things around. But we need to be willing to do our part. In California there is a ballot initiative that calls for the legalization of marijuana. The New York Times reports that Mexican officials are concerned because this could serve to empower the drug lords and spread the message to Mexico that the drug war is no longer worth fighting. Mexico could in the end become a narco-state: crime-ridden and dangerous, eager to export its social problems but encouraging even further illegal immigration to the north.

The most difficult national security threat may very well be not half way around the world but literally right next door.