Gen. Don Bolduc’s path to victory over Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) in New Hampshire’s United States Senate race has become clearer as polling captures his grassroots momentum in the final weeks of the campaign throughout the Granite State.
In Tilton, New Hampshire, on Tuesday night, a packed house of more than 100 people welcomed Gen. Bolduc to the stage with a standing ovation. All the seats in the local facility appeared to be taken. Many Granite Staters were content to stand to listen to the general. Others were listening in an adjoining room with less visibility.
Such a scene is what momentum looks like just seven days from an election. Behind Gen. Bolduc’s left shoulder, a smiling cardboard cutout of Hassan stood in the corner, apparently to remind the audience of Hassan’s less visible campaign, which is now lagging behind in the polls after leading by double digits just six weeks ago.
Gen. Bolduc has done more than 75 town hall events and is averaging five per day. He credits his momentum to his grassroots campaign, which has reached over one million voters through phone calls and knocking on doors.
Before the town hall on Tuesday afternoon, polling revealed Bolduc had taken the lead for the first time in the race — ahead of Hassan by one point — seven days before the election. RealClearPolitics took notice of the poll and recalibrated its forecast of the race as a GOP pickup.
“Momentum is hard to get and even harder to stop, and we are taking nothing for granted this last week of the campaign,” campaign spokeswoman Kate Constantini told Breitbart News. “His time and respect for voters has resonated with Granite Staters, and we are seeing that in the polling.”
The Tuesday polling revealed not only that Bolduc is leading the race, but that his favorability has eclipsed Hassan’s, whose favorability has dropped from three to seven points underwater in recent weeks. In contrast, Gen. Bolduc’s net favorability has improved, going from ten points underwater to just three.
The polling generated favorable headlines for Gen. Bolduc’s campaign, headlines that some of New Hampshire’s political experts last week acknowledged were possible. “There is a path to victory for Don Bolduc. He needs to grab that surfboard and ride it into office, that’s what it will take,” former GOP campaign consultant Greg Moore told New Hampshire Union Leader.
Hassan, the endangered incumbent who has been in office 2017, has perhaps feared this moment, warning campaign supporters last week at an event in Derry, New Hampshire, that “this has always been a close race.”
“It’s going to be a close race,” she reiterated. “We are New Hampshire. We are a very purple state.”
Gen. Bolduc’s campaign has gained the momentum despite being outspent by $9 million, according to third quarter fundraising totals. But last-minute financial reinforcements have appeared just at the right moment for the general. Last week, his campaign was boosted by more than $2 million from Republican super PACs and individual donors.
The flood of money comes at a key time in the race. The Mitch McConnell-backed super PAC defunded the race of $5.6 million in mid-October, effectively sabotaging Gen. Bolduc.
“We are getting a lot of response from that,” Gen. Bolduc told WMUR ABC on Sunday about increased grassroots fundraising since the PAC abandoned the race. “People are donating online. They are sending us checks. They are doing things to help us. You go to DonBolduc.com, you can do that.”
Speaking with Breitbart News in October, one day after the Super PAC announced it would defund the race, Gen. Bolduc said he had the momentum with or without McConnell’s help.
“The momentum is great right now,” he said. “We were 15 points behind during the primary. We closed the gap to 7-5-3, and now we’re in a tie. The momentum is going our way because we’re campaigning the Granite State way – five events a day is my average out there on the ground – town halls, house parties, community events, you name it.”
Follow Wendell Husebø on Twitter @WendellHusebø. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality.