Poll: GOP Hung Cao Just 2 Points Behind Far-Left Democrat Rep. Jennifer Wexton in VA-10

Surging Republican congressional candidate Hung Cao is within two points of beating leftist Democrat Rep. Jennifer Wexton for Virginia’s 10th Congressional District, which Joe Biden won by 19 points, suggesting that the Red Wave might be building after all in the final weeks of the election cycle.

Polls keep trending in the Grand Old Party’s favor as November 8 approaches, with additional seats in the U.S. House of Representatives coming into play. The latest is in Virginia, where an increasingly blue region is seeing red.

Virginia’s 10th congressional district is northwest of Washington, D.C. It includes suburbs like Fairfax County, extending into places like Loudoun County, where suburbs stretch into exurbs and finally the countryside. Two decades ago, these counties were reliably red. Immigration and the growth of federal government turned Fairfax blue, while counties like Loudoun went purple, and recently indigo.

Americans have gotten to know Loudoun County in particular over the past year. The Loudoun County School Board has become a laughingstock across the nation, pushing every form of wokeness imaginable, embodying parents’ rising in outrage over the indoctrination of children. This became the decisive issue that propelled Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) over the top in the Old Dominion in 2021 in a statewide sweep that also elected Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears (R) (a black woman who is a former Marine) and Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) (a young Cuban American who has become a national leader in pushing back against Joe Biden’s imperial overreach) and resulted in Republican control of the Virginia House of Delegates.

Now polls show Hung Cao has a serious shot at becoming the next upset GOP victory in Virginia.

Cao is an immigrant from Vietnam who graduated from the Naval Academy in Annapolis and rose to the rank of captain in the U.S. Navy. He served in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Somalia, and brings together a diverse coalition as a high-ranking military veteran who is both a tech-savvy Asian American and a committed Evangelical Christian, with campaign literature showcasing his photogenic wife and children. His campaign literature emphasizes an optimistic American Dream narrative.

Capt. Cao faces Wexton, who despite being in a moderate district has become vulnerable by staking out positions as a hard-left Democrat. Wexton reliably sides with Speaker Nancy Pelosi and aligns with the far left of her party, voting for $4 trillion of federal spending fueling record inflation and for Biden’s border policy of amnesty and defunding border protection as well as supporting transgender policies in schools, including biological boys showering and playing sports with biological girls in public schools. In 2021 Wexton became the co-chair of House Democrats’ Transgender Equality Task Force.

A new internal poll Monday showed these issues are taking a toll on Wexton, leaving her with 43 percent support against Cao’s 41 percent – a difference of just two points. By contrast, Biden carried that congressional district by 19 points – showing a 17-point swing toward Republicans.

The race had not been seen as competitive by Republican leaders because of a number of issues. Even though this district is very affluent, which provides some cushion regarding rising prices – Loudoun County is the wealthiest county in the nation per capita – inflation and the economy are major issues in northern Virginia. But Wexton’s aggressive stances on a broad spectrum of issues more typical for liberal Democrats from California or New York are problematic even for this leftward-drifting district, motiving many moderate voters to search for an alternative.

Enter Cao, who has demonstrated appeal both to conservatives and to moderates. His military career as a wartime special operations officer whose career also involved the Pentagon’s budget finds a ready audience in this region where defense contracting is a major source of jobs. A leading change engine in the district has been a massive number of immigrants, who relate to Cao’s story of coming to America.

But Cao’s Christian faith and homeschooling his five children with his wife resonate with traditional Republicans in the district, and Cao’s involvement in humanitarian work and disaster relief overseas and his nonprofit work to help disabled children in the United States highlight the compassionate side of social conservatism that has special appeal to moderate suburban women.

It is unclear if public polling will match the internal poll showing this race to be within the margin of error, as the economy deteriorates while prices surge and interest rates climb. But in many election cycles the narratives gel in the final month, and late deciders swing in large numbers as those themes gain traction. Pollsters will be watching to see if that happens with VA-10, and whether it is part of a larger trend.

Ken Klukowski is a Breitbart News senior contributor.