Republican outside groups in September reportedly poured massive amounts of money into swing states to reclaim the Senate by spending more than four times that of Democrat groups.
Dozens of Republican groups, which consist of super political action committees, have spent $104 million in seven Senate battleground states compared to the Democrats’ $23 million from outside groups, Reuters reported.
The swing states where Republicans have reportedly focused their cash include Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Ohio is notably absent from the list, but polling shows Republican candidate J.D. Vance has held a consistent lead over Democrat Senate candidate Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH).
More money could be on its way to help Republican Senate candidate Blake Masters in Arizona. GOP megadonor Peter Thiel will reportedly refocus his efforts from Ohio to Arizona’s race against establishment Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ). Thiel and his allies have reportedly spent $12 million to defeat Kelly. Kelly and his allies have only found $6 million in outside support for the race.
While Republicans have dominated outside contributions from PACs, Democrats reportedly have the advantage with individual campaign funds. Establishment Democrat candidate Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) has $7 million more than Republican candidate Gen. Don Bolduc. Likewise, Kelly’s campaign had a $23 million advantage over Masters in the summer, and John Fetterman, the Democrat candidate in Pennsylvania, had a $4.4 million advantage over Republican candidate Mehmet Oz at the end of June.
Republicans hope outside spending from organizations such as Sen. Rick Scott’s (R-FL) National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) will make up the difference. Scott’s NRSC raised $181.5 million before August and made early investments into races by spending about 95 percent of the funds. Scott said the investments are intended to define Democrat candidates early in the race to impact polling numbers and hence create momentum that excites GOP donors.
“We are on track to winning a minimum of 52 seats — and we are fighting every day to get to 54 or more,” Scott wrote in a memo to donors in September. “Thanks to your investments, the NRSC has been able to spend heavily, early (as promised at the start of the cycle!) which has kept our candidates in the ballgame.”
Such investments have paid off in Wisconsin, for instance, where Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) has taken a five point lead over the Democrat candidate, who supported defunding police and allowing criminals out of jail early on parole. Democrats likely fear similar momentum is building behind Republican candidates in Nevada and Pennsylvania.
The Senate races in Pennsylvania and Nevada have narrowed within the margin of error in recent weeks. In Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Florida, Republican candidates still hold constant leads. Arizona and New Hampshire appear to be the only swing states where Democrats have a larger advantage over Republicans.
For the GOP to retake the Senate, Republicans must hold North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania and retake at least one currently-held Democrat Senate seat in either Georgia, New Hampshire, Nevada, Arizona, or Washington State.
Follow Wendell Husebø on Twitter @WendellHusebø. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality.