Poll: Harriet Hageman Maintains 29-Point Lead over Liz Cheney Before Tuesday’s Election

Former President Trump-endorsed Harriet Hageman has maintained her huge lead of nearly 30 points over Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) heading into Tuesday’s primary, a Wyoming Survey & Analysis Center (WYSAC) poll revealed on Thursday.

Fifty-seven percent of Wyoming voters supported Hageman, while only 28 percent backed Cheney, a 29-point difference. Ten percent remain undecided. Previous polling has shown Cheney losing by 30 points, 28 points, and 22 points.

The poll sampled 562 likely Wyoming voters from all political affiliations from July 25-August 6 with a four-point margin of error.

Director of WYSAC, Brian Harnisch, said if the polling were tailored to just Republican primary voters, Hageman would be leading in the polls by approximately 50 points. “When looking only at residents who say they are Republican and likely voters in the primary, we actually see Hageman leading by roughly 50 points,” Harnisch said.

Among those who backed Cheney in the poll, 66 percent said their response was in support of Cheney. Conversely, among those who supported an alternative candidate, 29 percent said they are actually supporting that candidate, but 41 percent said their support of the alternative candidate was in opposition to Cheney.

That 41 percent opposing Cheney are strongly opposing her instead of simply just supporting Hageman, the poll revealed. Cheney’s trend of strong opposition opposed to strong support for Hageman reinforces the race as a referendum on Cheney.

“The race for the Republican nomination appears to be a referendum on Cheney, as it usually is when an incumbent seeks re-election,” University of Wyoming professor of political science, Jim King, stated.

When the poll asked respondents if they had watched the partisan January 6 Committee, of which Cheney is the vice chairwoman, 57 percent of Hageman’s supporters say they have been “following not too closely or not closely at all.” Eighty-three percent of Cheney’s supporters “say they have been following very closely or somewhat closely.”

Cheney’s position against Trump and America First has not gone over well with Republicans. The Wyoming Republican Party has “excommunicated” Cheney by no longer recognizing her as a Republican. She has lost the support of Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), and former Wyoming Rep. Barbara Cubin, who have endorsed Hageman.

“The big story is Liz Cheney is going to get beat,” Brad Coker, managing director of the polling firm Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, stated about his polling data. “That’s a foregone conclusion.”

“This race is more about Liz Cheney than it is about Donald Trump,” he added. “Anybody who’s credible, who ran to the right of Liz Cheney would probably win this race – with or without Donald Trump.”