Republicans will dominate the midterms elections in November, reclaiming the House and Senate, Politico predicted Tuesday.
While it is less of a surprise that Republicans are predicted to reclaim the House, it is more surprising the Senate is projected to “lean” Republican. If both forecasts come true, the Republicans will have an opportunity to conduct oversight and investigate the origins of the pandemic, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the invasion at the southern border, and whether or not President Biden should be impeached.
Politico predicts the House will “likely” flip to Republicans. The projections contend that 21 contested seats lean blue, while 16 seats lean Republican. The forecast includes 24 toss-up seats that do not favor any party.
The prediction includes state redistricting, where the GOP will likely break even in a process it was expected to dominate. Redistricting will impact the 221 House seats the Democrats hold, and the 209 seats the Republicans represent. There are five vacancies.
In the Senate, the prediction holds the higher chamber “leans” Republican. The Senate is currently split 50/50. If the GOP nets just one Senate seat, they would reclaim the Senate with a narrow majority. The seats that Republicans have an opportunity to reclaim are in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. Republicans will look to hold Pennsylvania’s vacant seat while defending the GOP seat in Wisconsin.
The projection has the vacant North Carolina GOP seat as leaning red but highly contested. Likewise, Democrats will look to hold their toss-up seat in New Hampshire, though the seat is not being contested by Sen. Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) Senate Leadership Fund. The other toss-up races do have the support of McConnell.
McConnell Senate’s leadership fund is not the only variable. Among others, voter registration is key. The GOP in the swing states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada have made key gains in voter registration, Breitbart News reported. The influx of GOP registered voters will likely have an impact on the statewide races.
Another important variable is the Hispanic vote. Hispanics make up key demographics in many of the swing states and districts. A Quinnipiac poll from last week revealed Hispanic voters disapproved of the leader of the Democrat Party, President Biden, more than any other racial group. Only 12 percent of Hispanics said they “approve strongly” of how Biden is managing the office.
Additional polling shows that Republicans are leading on several important metrics. Republicans lead on the generic ballot, enthusiasm, and key issues, such as inflation, the economy, immigration, and crime.
Follow Wendell Husebø on Twitter and Gettr @WendellHusebø. He is the author of Politics of Slave Morality.