Midterm Analysis: GOP to Win House Based on Democrat Retirements Alone

House Republicans are scheduled to pick up at least ten House seats due to Democrat retirements alone, according to an analysis by left-leaning Punchbowl News.

Republicans are only in the minority by five seats with 30 total Democrat retirements, the largest mass exodus in three decades.

Some of the districts that will likely fall to Republicans from Democrats’ grasp have not been finalized by state legislatures or courts. However, Punchbowl estimated the following districts will change from blue to red:

1. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-6) — Lean R (R+7)
2. Rep. Cheri Bustos (IL-17) Toss-up (D+4)
3. Rep. Tim Ryan (OH-13) — Map not finalized
4. Rep. Charlie Crist (FL-13) — Map not finalized
5. Rep. Ron Kind (WI-3) — Map not finalized
6. Rep. Conor Lamb (PA-17) — Map not finalized
7. Rep. G.K. Butterfield (NC-1) — Map not finalized
8. Rep. Stephanie Murphy (FL-7) — Map not finalized
9. Rep. Ed Perlmutter (CO-7) — Toss-up (D+6)
10. Rep. Jim Cooper (TN-5) — R+15, solid R

The analysis also includes three house seats that Republicans have a shot at flipping but may be an uphill battle:

1. Rep. Jerry McNerney (CA-9) — D+8. Redistricted into a seat with Frontline Rep. Josh Harder.
2. Rep. Kathleen Rice (NY-4) — D+8
3. Rep. Peter DeFazio (OR-4) — D+9

The analysis continued, revealing that Republicans are favored to pick up three seats based on state redistricting, along with a member retiring. These include:

1. Rep. Filemon Vela (TX-34) —  Solid D (D+17). Redistricted into the same district as Rep. Vicente Gonzalez.
2. Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard (CA-42) — Solid D (D+44). Redistricted into the same district as Lowenthal.
3. Rep. Alan Lowenthal (CA-42) — Solid D (D+44). Redistricted into the same district as Roybal-Allard.

The mass Democrat exodus from Congress is likely due to the failings of President Biden’s leadership throughout 2021. During Biden’s presidency, more than two million migrants have been apprehended at the southern border. Inflation has hiked to a 40-year-high. Gas prices have increased $1.00 since last year. Weekly wages have sagged. Fentanyl deaths have become the greatest killer among 18-45-year-olds. Supply chain woes have persisted. And Americans suffered embarrassment from the deadly Afghan withdrawal.

Polling indicates Biden’s woes have contributed to the Democrats’ challenge of maintaining the House majority. Among registered voters, Republicans lead Democrats by 14 points in enthusiasm (79 – 65 percent), according to an Emerson survey. Enthusiasm is a relevant metric because it indicates turnout levels among voters. Turnout greatly impacts closely contested races.