The Israeli government has reportedly agreed to the outlines of a U.S. proposal for a ceasefire with Hezbollah, to which the Lebanese government has also largely agreed, according to several reports in Israeli media on Monday.
Under the deal, Hezbollah would agree to move north of the Litani River and away from the Israeli border, in compliance with United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 of 2006.
In addition, Barak Ravid of Axios reports:
- The draft agreement includes a U.S.-led oversight committee to monitor implementation and address violations.
- The U.S. has agreed to give Israel a letter of assurances that includes support for Israeli military action against imminent threats from Lebanese territory, and for action to disrupt things like the reestablishment of a Hezbollah military presence near the border or the smuggling of heavy weapons, Israeli and U.S. officials say.
- Under the agreement, Israel would take such action after consultations with the U.S., and if the Lebanese military did not deal with the threat.
The conditions outlined above appear to deal with the major sticking point in the negotiations, which was Israeli freedom of action to confront Hezbollah if the terrorist group decided to attack Israeli towns near the border again.
On Sunday, the two sides traded heavy blows — which, despite appearances, is a sign of an imminent agreement, as each side tries to achieve military objectives before the fighting stops, and claim that it ended in a superior position.
Israel launched heavy airstrikes against the Hezbollah stronghold of Dahieh in Beirut, while Hezbollah launched 250 rockets at Israel in 24 hours, most of which were intercepted, but some of which caused damage and light injuries.
Both sides have an incentive to reach a ceasefire before the incoming Trump administration takes office, because on the one hand Trump has promised to let Israel have greater freedom of action to win its war against Iran’s terrorist proxies, but on the other hand Trump has also said he wants the Lebanon war finished by the time he takes office.
Regardless, Israel is clearly the winner in the conflict — the Third Lebanon War — after destroying Hezbollah’s leadership and communications infrastructure, and uprooting much of its infrastructure near the Israeli border.
The broader question is whether a ceasefire can last — and how the U.S. and Israel will deal with the Iranian regime.
Joel B. Pollak is Senior Editor-at-Large at Breitbart News and the host of Breitbart News Sunday on Sirius XM Patriot on Sunday evenings from 7 p.m. to 10 p.m. ET (4 p.m. to 7 p.m. PT). He is the author of The Agenda: What Trump Should Do in His First 100 Days, available for pre-order on Amazon. He is also the author of The Trumpian Virtues: The Lessons and Legacy of Donald Trump’s Presidency, now available on Audible. He is a winner of the 2018 Robert Novak Journalism Alumni Fellowship. Follow him on Twitter at @joelpollak.