Israel’s retaliatory attack on Iran’s missile facilities and air defenses on Saturday is a major win for the West — and a major setback for the Iranian regime, as well as for Russia and China, which back it.
Though Iran officially minimized the impact of the attack, it severely damaged Iran’s ability to threaten its neighbors, and left it virtually defenseless in future. It also boosted a pro-Western alliance against the “Axis of Resistance” propped up by Moscow and Beijing.
Here are some of the major achievements and consequences of the attack.
1. Israel demonstrated that it can conduct long-range attacks on Iran. For many years, critics and skeptics doubted whether Israel could mount the kind of long-range attack necessary to strike Iran, with midair refueling and flight paths over hostile territory. Israel first demonstrated that it had that capacity when it struck back at the Houthis in July, and did so again on Saturday, when it attacked in three separate waves, and with female crew on some flights.
2. Iran’s air defenses are a complete failure. Iran relies on an aging air force, with planes and parts dating back to the era of the Shah before 1979. It also depends on Russian-made defense systems, including the S-300 and S-400. Israel attacked and destroyed these systems without trouble, according to reports. Moreover, it targeted air defenses around strategic sites, including energy facilities. Israel — and the U.S. — will have total freedom in Iranian airspace.
3. Iran will not be able to replenish its ballistic missiles. After the second Iranian missile attack on Israel on October 1, it became clear that any Israeli response would have to make sure Iran could not launch a third, given that Israel’s air defenses only stopped about 85% of the incoming projectiles. Israel not only hit Iran’s launch sites, but destroyed the factories where it mixes fuel for its missiles. That equipment, from China, could take years to replace.
4. Israel and the U.S. are in sync again. The Biden administration has tried to stop Israel from winning the war in Gaza and Lebanon. Israel, wisely, has defied it and achieved major gains against Hezbollah and Hamas. The tensions between the two governments have grown — but on Saturday, Israel stayed within the U.S. demands that it only attack military sites, not nuclear or oil sites. Israel gave up bigger attack plans, but gained diplomatic cover.
5. The Abraham Accords partners made a wise investment. One of the major factors driving Arab states to join the Abraham Accords with Israel under then-President Donald Trump was the belief that Israel would be strong against Iran. The terror attack of October 7 may have shaken that confidence, but none of the countries quit the deal — and Israel affirmed their trust by striking back at Iran in an effective way. Such strength invites more agreements.
6. Russia is going to have a drone shortage in Ukraine. Israel reportedly struck Iranian drone production facilities, which are used to build the drones that Hezbollah uses against Israel and that occasionally evade Israeli defenses. That will affect Russia, which relies on Iran for some of its drones in the war against Ukraine. Although Russia holds the upper hand in many areas of the battlefield, a drone shortage could give Ukraine an advantage.
7. China’s support for Iran, and for terrorist groups, was a bad bet. China has openly backed Iran and terrorist organizations like Hamas in the ongoing conflict. But Israel is dismantling the “ring of fire” that Iran built around it, and now Iran itself is vulnerable to attack. Israel remains the ascendant military and economic power in the region, and China has positioned itself badly to build partnerships with Israel and Israeli firms in the future.
8. Iran is increasingly vulnerable to regime change from within. A consistent theme of Israel’s fight back against Iran and its terrorist proxies in recent years has been the message that it is not at war with the people of Iran, but rather the regime. That message was reinforced by the fact that Israel’s attack Saturday did not affect civilian life, aside from long lines at gas stations. As the regime looks increasingly feeble, its opponents may sense an opportunity.
9. Netanyahu’s government is succeeding, despite the hopes of its critics. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has rebounded from the shock of October 7 and is successfully prosecuting this war. There are still major challenges: the 101 hostages still in Gaza; the issue of religious exemption from military duty; and the government’s controversial judicial reforms, to name a few. But Netanyahu has emerged as a statesman without peer.
10. Israel has turned the American political calendar to its advantage. Israelis fear that a Kamala Harris administration would mean increased U.S. pressure. That may be why Israel intensified its fight against Hezbollah after the debate, when Harris looked like a winner. Conversely, as Trump’s prospects improved, Israel may have accelerated its attack on Iran before Election Day, lest it be seen as reacting to a Trump win by expanding the war.
11. The war is likely to be over on January 20, 2025. Whether Harris wins or Trump wins, Israel will likely try to achieve its goals before Inauguration Day. It does not want to risk an arms embargo by Harris, and even though Trump is more supportive, he has expressed a preference for the war to be over quickly. The best-case scenario: Israel wraps up the war and hands Trump a chance for a major diplomatic win in his first days back in the Oval Office.
Joel B. Pollak is Senior Editor-at-Large at Breitbart News and the host of Breitbart News Sunday on Sirius XM Patriot on Sunday evenings from 7 p.m. to 10 p.m. ET (4 p.m. to 7 p.m. PT). He is the author of The Agenda: What Trump Should Do in His First 100 Days, available for pre-order on Amazon. He is also the author of The Trumpian Virtues: The Lessons and Legacy of Donald Trump’s Presidency, now available on Audible. He is a winner of the 2018 Robert Novak Journalism Alumni Fellowship. Follow him on Twitter at @joelpollak.