Exit Polls Suggest Netanyahu Likely Winner in Israeli Elections Again

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is likely on his way to victory for the sixth consecutive election, with a projected bloc of 61 seats, according to exit polls for Israel’s fourth vote in two years.

According to the exit polls, which are often not true indicators of the end results, Netanyahu’s ruling Likud party will be able to secure the 61-seat majority needed to form a government and end the political impasse that has gripped the country for over two years. His victory depends on Yamina, a party headed by Naftali Bennett, agreeing to join Netanyahu and his coalition partners — Shas, United Torah Judaism, and the Religious Zionist party.

Update: Netanyahu declared victory on Twitter:

(“Citizens of Israel — thank you! You have given a giant victory to the right and to the Likud under my leadership. The Likud is vastly bigger than the next-biggest party; we are in the thirties and they are in the teens [area code 3 vs. area code 1]. It’s clear that most of the Israeli citizens are on the right, and they want a strong and stable right-wing government that will guard the economy of Israel, the security of Israel, and the Land of Israel. That’s what we will do. I love you!”)
Bennett is in the position of kingmaker as the pro-Netanyahu bloc has apparently won between 53-54 seats, and the anti-Netanyahu bloc has apparently won 59. The right-wing Bennett, with seven or eight seats, has made it clear he will not sit with the Arab-majority Joint List, which is predicted to have gained eight or nine seats, and is part of the anti-Netanyahu bloc.

Netanyahu campaigned on the success of Israel’s turbo vaccination campaign, which he spearheaded, as well as his success in securing four normalization deals with Arab countries. A victory would see him enter his 13th consecutive year as prime minister.

Likud won between 31-33 seats, according to Channel 12 and Channel 13 respectively. The second-largest party, Yesh Atid, likely won between 16 and 18 seats.

The New Hope Party, led by Netanyahu rival and Likud defector Gideon Sa’ar, won six seats, according to Channel 12, and five according to Channel 13.

The secular right-wing Yisrael Beytenu party won six seats, according to Channel 12, and 8 seats, according to Channel 13. Benny Gantz’s Blue and White party, meanwhile, fared far worse than the previous two elections, gaining seven to eight seats, while the left-wing Labor and Meretz parties won seven and six seats, respectively.

The numbers will likely change overnight in Netanyahu’s favor once the soldiers’ votes are tallied. Likud historically has made gains from the military’ vote, which leans to the right.

Voter turnout was the lowest in years, with 60.9% percent of Israel’s 6,453,255 eligible voters casting their ballots by 8 p.m. Arab cities had the lowest turnout, falling under 50%, according to estimates. The March 2020 election, by contrast, saw a 71.5% turnout, despite it coinciding with the beginning of the coronavirus outbreak.

Israel, which unlike the U.S. does not have a vote-by-mail option, set up special polling stations for those in quarantine and coronavirus carriers — though according to reports, very few Israelis showed up to vote there.