TEL AVIV – Coronavirus could prove to be the wild card tipping the election outcome one way or another as a new poll reveals some 400,000 eligible Israeli voters may choose not to over fears of exposure. 

Some 6.5 percent of 502 respondents in a survey carried out by Midgam pollsters said they were considering waiving their right to vote and not showing up to the ballot box on Monday as a result of the coronavirus outbreak. Out of 6.4 million Israelis eligible to vote, that translates to 400,000 people, most of whom are between the ages of 18-34, according to a statistics released by the consulting firm that commissioned the survey, Rimon Cohen & Co.

Voter turnout is key for the two main parties, Likud and Blue and White, which are running in an extremely tight race.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been doubling down on a campaign to convince the estimated 300,000 Likud voters who stayed home during the last elections to get out and vote this time. According to an analysis by Herb Keinon writing in The Jerusalem Post, if a fake news story makes the rounds on social media on Monday claiming certain polling stations have been compromised by a voter with the virus, a perfect storm would ensue endangering Israel’s democratic process.

Rimon advised the parties to prepare a strategy in the case of fake news stories.

Netanyahu told Army Radio that people need to remain vigilant “but not panic.”
The prime minister himself has abstained from shaking hands in the last few days of his campaign trail.

According to Keinon, a lower voter turnout is bad numbers-wise for both Netanyahu and Blue and White’s Benny Gantz, but it has relegated discussion of the legal woes faced by both candidates to the background. The prime minister has been indicted in three corruption cases and Gantz is facing an investigation into his former hitech firm, the Fifth Dimnesion. However, Keinon points out that Netanyahu likely comes out on top in this case.

“Netanyahu’s legal problems are static – people know by now what is involved and what the issues are, and there has not been anything new since his court date was set for March 17 two weeks ago. The Fifth Dimension story, however, is new and dynamic,” Keinon writes.

“What the coronavirus has done by dominating the news over the last few days is weaken the impact of news of the investigation. And while Gantz has had a difficult week, with revelations about the investigation considered partly responsible for his party’s slippage in the polls over the last few days, things could have been a lot worse had the virus not dominated the news cycle for days,” he concludes.

At least three major polls taken days ahead of the national election show Likud party inching ahead of rival Blue and White for the first time.

Commentators have said the drop in support for Blue and White seems to be the result of the pending investigation into Fifth Dimension.