A new poll conducted by Survey USA and Los Angeles-area ABC News affiliate KABC shows Donald Trump dominating the California primary race (among registered voters — see Update), leading Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) 54% to 20%. Ohio Gov. John Kasich is third in the poll, at 14%.
The poll’s topline numbers were released on Monday at noon by ABC7 Eyewitness News reporter Elex Michelson:
The poll also found Hillary Clinton opening a wide lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) in the Golden State, 57% to 38%:
The results confirm trends that show voters moving toward the frontrunner in each party as the final primary contests loom. Though neither Trump nor Clinton has a majority of the delegates needed to secure the nominations of their respective parties, each could clinch in California.
On Monday, while campaigning in Indiana, Cruz predicted that no Republican candidate would win enough delegates to secure the 1,237 threshold. If Cruz wins in California, or holds Trump to a small victory, he could stop Trump from amassing enough delegates. Trump will likely need to win California to secure victory, even if he wins Indiana on Tuesday.
However, Trump’s growing lead in the California polls — which has ballooned from high single digits in early April, to double digits in late April, and now to an outright majority — may suggest that the billionaire outsider could score a big enough win in California to hit 1,237 delegates, perhaps even without a win in Indiana, and could win the GOP nomination on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland in July.
There are five weeks remaining until the June 7 California primary. However, on May 9, mail-in ballots will be sent to voters who have registered to receive them, meaning that voting will begin in earnest next week. Roughly two-thirds of California voters are expected to vote early by mail, meaning that poll numbers at this point in the race could prove decisive, and difficult to reverse.
Update: An article published subsequently by ABC7.com indicates that the poll result reports support among registered voters, rather than likely voters. Further data were requested but not yet available.
Joel B. Pollak is Senior Editor-at-Large at Breitbart News. His new e-book, Leadership Secrets of the Kings and Prophets: What the Bible’s Struggles Teach Us About Today, is on sale through Amazon Kindle Direct. Follow him on Twitter at @joelpollak.