If the California Primary Were Held Today: Trump 94, Cruz 72, Kasich 6

If the California primary were held today, Donald Trump would win 94 of the state’s 172 delegates, while Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) would win 72, and Ohio governor John Kasich would win 6, according to Breitbart California analysis.

The analysis was compiled from recent polling data, including the most recent USC Dorsife/Los Angeles Times poll, and Monday’s SurveyUSA poll. It assumes that each candidate wins all of the congressional districts in the regions where he is currently ahead, and that Trump and Cruz split congressional districts in regions where they are running even, with Trump taking slightly more.

Delegates are awarded on a winner-takes-all basis, three per district. Ten are also awarded to the statewide winner, and three state officials are required to vote for the winner on the first ballot.

If Trump were to win 94 delegates, that would probably move him close to, but not past, the overall total of 1,237 he will need to win the party’s nomination on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland in July. Trump’s potential in the Golden State is huge (or “yuge”): he could easily win over 80% of California’s delegates, which would likely be enough to surpass the 1,237-delegate threshold.

However, Cruz is already fighting hard on the ground. Under Cruz’s best-case scenario, according to Breitbart California analysis, Cruz could win 118 delegates, nearly 70% of the total, though that is very unlikely. What is likeliest at the moment is a narrow loss to Trump, or possibly a narrow Cruz victory. Either one would likely deny Trump an outright majority of delegates.

At the moment, Kasich is a minor factor, though he could win a dozen or more delegates if he concentrates efforts in a few liberal districts. He leads Cruz narrowly in some coastal areas, though he trails Trump nearly everywhere.

The results among Democrats are murkier. Clinton leads across California, but Sanders is fighting hard in the state.