ROME, Italy — The UK-based Online Betting Guide (OLBG) has begun issuing odds on the next papal conclave, favoring Filipino Cardinal Luis Tagle to succeed Pope Francis when the moment comes.
OLBG places Cardinal Tagle’s odds at 5 to 1, making him the current favorite for the post, but he is closely followed by Ghanaian Cardinal Peter Turkson, who heads up the Vatican’s Pontifical Academy of Sciences.
Turkson’s odds presently stand at 6 to 1, a position shared by 80-year-old Italian Cardinal Angelo Scola. Two Americans figure among OLBG’s top ten papal candidates, with Cardinal Raymond Burke’s odds standing at 8 to 1 and New York Cardinal Timothy Dolan’s odds at 12 to 1, winning them the 6th and 8th positions respectively.
Francis began regularly using a wheelchair in May because of acute knee pain but speculation regarding his successor began in earnest in early June when the Vatican announced the cancellation of the 85-year-old pontiff’s July trip to the Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Sudan.
Pope Francis arrives on a wheelchair for an audience with children in the San Damaso courtyard at the Vatican, Saturday, June 4, 2022. (AP Photo/Alessandra Tarantino)
The curtailment of travel for health reasons led to suspicions that the pope might be considering retiring from the papal office as his predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI, had done in 2013.
Former Archbishop of Milan, Cardinal Angelo Scola (C) attends the celebration for the ordination of 29 new priests at Duomo Cathedral on June 09, 2018 in Milan, Italy. (Emanuele Cremaschi/Getty Images)
In late May, the pope also announced the creation of 21 new cardinals, 16 of whom fall beneath the age of 80, making them eligible as electors in the next papal conclave. The consistory that will elevate these bishops to the rank of cardinal is scheduled to take place on Saturday, August 27.
Francis further fueled rumors of a possible resignation when he revealed plans to visit the Italian city of Aquila the day after the consistory, along with a stop at the tomb of Pope Celestine V, who famously resigned from the papacy in 1294, the last pope to do so before Benedict XVI.
Benedict had also visited Celestine’s tomb in 2009, several years before his own retirement.
Early this week, however, Pope Francis appeared to quash rumors of an imminent resignation in a meeting with a delegation of Brazilian bishops.
During that meeting, the pope told visiting Archbishop Roque Paloschi that resigning from the papacy “does not cross his mind” despite the many challenges associated with his declining health, insisting that he wished to live out his mission for as long as God allows him.
In recent weeks, Francis has offered a series of reflections on old age during his Wednesday general audiences in which he has underscored the value of growing older and the important contributions that the elderly make to society in general.
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