The Russian government on Friday struggled to manage international outrage over the increasing likelihood that a Russian surface-to-air missile brought down Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243 on Wednesday, killing 38 of its passengers.

Aviation experts, and the Ukrainian government, believed from the outset that a missile strike was the most likely explanation for the crash. The plane was bound from Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, to Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, when it passed through a region where Russian forces were attempting to shoot down Ukrainian drones.

The Russian government variously blamed bad weather or a bird strike for the plane crash, even though photos and video from the crash scene – including a harrowing video filmed by one of the surviving passengers – showed clear evidence of shrapnel or bullets piercing the fuselage. 

The Russians also conspicuously failed to explain why the stricken aircraft flew across the Caspian Sea to attempt an emergency landing in Kazakhstan instead of nearby Russian airports. The plane came down in the Kazakh city of Aktau in a fireball, but 29 passengers miraculously walked away from the Christmas Day crash.

Kazakhstan, mindful of its blossoming relationship with its Russian neighbor, remains studiously noncommittal about the cause of the plane crash. Kazakh officials have refused to comment until a full investigation is completed. 

Azerbaijan, which has also been trying to build a stronger relationship with Russia, was reluctant to dispute Moscow’s story in public, but anonymous Azeri officials grumbled to reporters that it was increasingly clear the plane was shot down. 

Reuters published the latest such report on Thursday, quoting “four sources with knowledge of the preliminary findings of Azerbaijan’s investigation into the disaster.” Those sources said investigators believe the plane was hit by a Russian Pantsir-S air defense missile, which is consistent with the explanation advanced by Ukrainian intelligence within hours of the crash.

“No one claims that it was done on purpose. However, taking into account the established facts, Baku expects the Russian side to confess to the shooting down of the Azerbaijani aircraft,” one of the sources said.

A U.S. official concurred with the preliminary findings of the investigation in comments to Reuters on Thursday, and the Canadian Foreign Ministry also expressed concerns about the possible shootdown, calling on Russia to “allow for an open and transparent investigation into the incident and to accept its findings.”

Azerbaijan Airlines said on Friday that preliminary results from the crash investigation indicated the plane experienced “external physical and technical interference.” Several aviation experts have said the erratic flight path of the airplane suggested it was subjected to electronic countermeasures, such as GPS jamming.

“We will never forget the beloved people we lost in the crash of the Embraer-190 aircraft. This loss left a deep wound in the heart of an entire community. It reminds us to be more compassionate and connected to one another,” the statement said.

The president of Azerbaijan Airlines, Samir Rzayev, saluted the pilots of Flight J2-8243 for the incredible feat of landing the plane and giving some of the passengers a chance to survive.

“Unfortunately, two of our experienced pilots and one guide lost their lives in the accident. Their heroism will never be forgotten,” Rzayev said.

“While this tragic accident brought a significant loss to our nation, the crew’s valiant dedication to their duties until the last moment and their prioritization of human life have immortalized their names in history,” he said.

As for the strange course the stricken aircraft took across the Caspian Sea before its emergency landing, an Azerbaijan website called Caliber offered a grim theory on Thursday – the Russians wanted the plane to come down in the ocean so there would be no survivors, and no wreckage for investigators to examine:

As is known, the Grozny airport refused to allow the aircraft to land. Moreover, the Azerbaijani aircraft was also denied landing permissions at the airports in Makhachkala and Mineralnye Vody. The disoriented crew, subjected to air defence fire and electronic warfare (EW) systems, was redirected to the Kazakh city of Aktau. It can be assumed that this recommendation was given with one goal: to have the aircraft crash into the Caspian Sea, where all witnesses would perish and the aircraft would sink. However, this is merely our assumption

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov insisted on Thursday that “it would be wrong to make hypotheses before investigators make their verdict.”

“We definitely cannot do it, and no one should do it,” he demanded.

Kazakhstan’s parliamentary speaker Maulen Ashimbayev leaped to Russia’s defense, denouncing speculation about the cause of the crash as “unethical.”

Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev likewise gave Russia as much cover as he could, blaming “worsening weather conditions” for setting the plane on a course that ended in tragedy.

“There are videos of the plane crash available in the media and on social networks, and everyone can watch them. However, the reasons for the crash are not yet known to us,” Aliyev said. 

“There are various theories, but I believe it is premature to discuss them. The matter must be thoroughly investigated,” he said.