Establishment parties in Europe suffered another defeat on Sunday as the elections for the National Council in Austria saw the populist Freedom Party come in first place for the first time in history.
Issues such as mass migration, the economic downturn throughout the EU, and growing opposition to support for the war in Ukraine propelled the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) to victory with an estimated 29.2 per cent of the total vote.
The populist party led by firebrand former interior minister Herbert Kickl bested the governing neo-liberal Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) led by Chancellor Karl Nehammer at 26 per cent, the left-wing opposition Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) at 21 per cent, the New Austria and Liberal Forum (NEOS) at nine per cent and the government coalition partner Green Alternative (GRÜNE) at eight per cent, according to Kronen Zeitung.
Initial projections have the Freedom Party being allocated 58 seats in the National Council, followed by the ÖVP with 52, the SPÖ with 41. Trailing far behind, the liberal NEOS picks up 17 and the Greens 15 seats. The results mark the first time in the Second Republic of Austria, and the first time since the Freedom Party was founded in 1956, that the FPÖ came out on top of a national election.
Intriguingly, there was almost no “gender gap” among Freedom Party voters, with nearly as many female voters (28 per cent) as male voters (30 per cent) backing the party, according to a snap survey by Austrian television networks ATV and Puls 24. The FPÖ meanwhile cleaned up in rural areas, small towns, and suburbs while the left performed best in big cities.
Kickl, who stridently opposed coronavirus lockdown diktats and serves as a leading critic of the open borders agenda, having called for a “Fortress Austria” immediate halt of asylum seekers and unapologetically backing “remigration” policies of encouraging foreigners to return to their homelands, said after his victory Saturday that his party is ready to govern and that it will not back away from its positions.
“My big thanks go to the citizens. It was not easy to go against this political system. The voter has delivered a powerful message,” the FPÖ leader said.
While Sunday’s results is doubtless historic, the 29 per cent result is not considerably more than the FPÖ’s previous highs, taking 26 per cent in 1999. Yet that was in an era when the traditional ruling parties commanded more power nationally, and the winning party could take results in the high 30s or even low 40s. Today’s result is the lowest share for a first-place party since 2013, well short of an outright majority, which will make any hope for the FPÖ to build a governing coalition very low indeed.
Far more likely are the legacy establishment parties coming together from left and right to build a FPÖ-blocking government to keep Kickl out of power, in a move that has become so familiar in other European states. Indeed, former Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern has already called for his Social Democrats and the soft-right People’s Party to work together in building a new government, Austria’s Kronen Zeitung notes.
Meanwhile, present ÖVP Chancellor Karl Nehammer has already ruled out a coalition with the Freedom Party, saying that “it is not possible to make a coalition with a conspiracy theorist,” referring to Kickl.
Now, the only question remains whether the legacy right and left-wing parties can put aside their little differences and agree to split up the government ministries between them. What is certain is the centre-right-green coalition that has ruled so far doesn’t have enough support to carry on.
Even if the Chancellor manages to broker a new coalition, two losing parties coming together to block the victor and having a hard time navigating their differences in the public eye is all grist to Kickl’s mill, potentially setting him up in a stronger yet position for the next elections, particularly should the government collapse and a vote come early. As Austrian political scientists have stated, the attempt to demonise Kickl by the legacy parties has already brought him votes.
Whether or not the Freedom Party enters the next government, populists across Europe have hailed the victory as another major stepping stone in transforming the political landscape in the EU.
Geert Wilders, who serves as the main power player behind the Dutch government after leading his own party to a historic victory last year, wrote on X: “The Netherlands, Hungary, Belgium, Italy, Germany, Portugal, Sweden, France, Spain, Czech Republic and today Austria!
“We are winning! Times are changing! Identity, sovereignty, freedom and no more illegal immigration/asylum is what tens of millions of Europeans long for!”.
The FPÖ has previously governed in Austria as a junior government partner. Although subsequent revelations disarmed some of the key claims, that government collapsed in 2019 over the so-called ‘Ibiza Affair‘ over irregularities in party financing.