Contenders to be the next leader of the rump Conservative Party are setting out their stalls, but as things stand even managing to lead without being deposed before the next general election would be a major achievement.
The UK Parliament returned to Westminster on Monday after the summer recess, and with it the leadership campaigns for those seeking to be the next head of the Conservative Party, now in opposition as a much reduced force after 14 years of squandered power and doggedly pursued by Nigel Farage’s Reform from the right and the Liberal Democrats from the centre.
While some of the promises may prove to be eye-catching, the chances of any of them having to be delivered upon seems slight given the Tories have had five leaders since 2016 and the next general election is likely to be over four years away. The chances of yet another party coup before then would not be a bad bet, particularly if this process delivers a candidate disliked by the globalist-centrist power at party headquarters.
While polling shows ‘non political’ members of the public don’t even know who most of these contenders are, those with early name recognition have a real hill to climb anyway, given they are associated with their previous time in government. Priti Patel, for instance, who is easily the best known of the pack presided over a period of soaring mass migration.
While Patel has tried to explain those figures away, it won’t be easy to break the link with the former Conservative government, which put migration into overdrive and presided over what many in the public perceived as an era of open borders. Somewhat condescendingly, Patel has called discussion of migration arrivals during her era as Home Secretary as “lazy” and “too simple”.
All acknowledge that migration has been too high but shy away from any promises of major action to deal with the issue. Kemi Badenoch, for instance, has set herself up as the Tory hardliner in this competition but wouldn’t back an annual net migration cap, although this may be in recognition that such promises have been made — and massively broken — by Tory leaders in recent memory.
James Cleverly on the other hand — also a former Home Secretary — has said he wanted to resurrect the Rwanda deportation plan of the last government while also refusing to back taking Britain out of the European Court of Human Rights, which would almost certainly prevent the policy from working in practice.
Nick Timothy, a former top advisor to Prime Minister Theresa May who has spent years cultivating a reputation as a dry, serious thinker in the party announced his backing for Tom Tugendhat on Monday morning. The association may prove to be an unfortunate one for Timothy, given Tugendhat’s shameful treatment of Sir Roger Scruton — metaphorically kicking the conservative political philosopher while he was down — shortly before his death sticks to him still.
As that new polling continues to attest, it remains the case that no one in the public has heard of challenger Mel Stride. In findings that will no doubt be a blow for the continuity-Sunak candidate, it is stated those polled who knew who he was associated words like “dull” and “quite boring” with him.
The process to replace the now nearly invisible former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as leader of the Conservatives is slated to conclude on November second. The first step in that will be this Wednesday when a ballot of Conservative MPs will eliminate one of the six contestants, with another ballot the following week whittling down to four.