The right-wing populist National Rally of Marine Le Pen holds a commanding lead of 13 points over French President Emmanuel Macron in the upcoming elections for the European Parliament.
Three months before voters in France and across the EU will go to the polls and determine the composition of the bloc’s next parliament, President Macron continues to struggle as he looks to move on from a year dominated by civil unrest his country, from racially-inspired riots, to labour union strikes and mass demonstrations against his raising of the pension age, and the nation’s farmers shutting down critical roadways in protest of his green agenda.
According to an Ipsos survey of French voters, Macron’s neo-liberal globalist Ensemble! coalition, which includes his own Renaissance (RE) as well as the centrist Democratic Movement (MoDem) and the globalist Horizons party, is only on pace to receive 18 per cent of the vote in the June elections, declining a further two points over the past three months.
Meanwhile, the populist opposition National Rally, led by 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, who took over as president of the party in 2022 as former presidential candidate Marine Le Pen transitioned to leading the parliamentary branch of the party in the National Assembly, is projected to win 31 per cent support after increasing in over the past three months by three points.
The surge means the populist party, capitalising on anger over mass migration, economic failures, and the green agenda, now commands a 13-point lead over Macron and his allies.
The polling firm noted that 72 per cent of those backing the National Rally said their top issue in the European elections was to show their disapproval of the president and his globalist government in Paris, compared to 39 per cent on average among all voters.
“The anti-Macron vote is therefore clearly the Bardella vote,” Brice Teinturier of the Le Monde newspaper remarked.
The survey also revealed that the National Rally has solidified and strengthened its hold among the working class, particularly those classed as labourers, such as those who work in agriculture, with 57 per cent of such voters backing the populist party.
However, while the party has been able to maintain its traditional support base among the working class, the poll found that it is beginning to expand its reach into the middle classes of France.
“The correlation between the RN vote and the income level is smoothing out, with notably little variation between households earning less than €1,250 per month and those earning up to €3,500, all voting more than 30 per cent for the Bardella list,” Teinturier said.
Although the party is very much still dominated by former presidential candidate Marine Le Pen, the June elections will serve as the first major litmus test for Bardella after taking the helm of the party in 2022.
While young in years, Bardella has been active within politics for over a decade, having joined the National Rally as a 16-year-old, and has since served in various roles, including as a Member of the European Parliament, and the vice president of the RN before taking over the top spot two years ago. If the polls hold true, Bardella would have led the National Rally to one of its best performances in a national election in the history of the party and therefore would likely entrench himself as the undisputed heir the Le Pen political dynasty.
It is widely expected that Marine Le Pen, who has failed in three attempts to win the presidency, will look to give it ‘one more go’ in trying to become president of France in 2028 when Macron’s second and final term in the Élysée Palace comes to a close.
However, some may begin to question this, with Bardella’s rising political stardom rocketing him to the position of the second most popular politician in the country, besting Le Pen and only trailing behind former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe.
For now, there appears to be no daylight between Le Pen and Bardella. In a dual interview with the Journal du Dimanche in January, Bardella said: ‘Marine has the solidity coupled with the experience of three candidacies in the presidential election. Today, there is no longer any structural obstacle to our coming to power and her being elected President of the Republic in three years.”
Meanwhile, Le Pen said of Bardella: “One of the great responsibilities of a party leader is to find an heir. There is nothing worse than a leader who does everything to never have a successor… Is it reassuring to have someone who will be able to take your place tomorrow? Yes, it’s very reassuring.”