Polling showing recent antisemitism scandals for Starmer’s Labour party has dented its poll lead, but the unsavoury episodes evidently haven’t been enough to put voters off handing him two thumping victories overnight in the Wellingborough and Kingswood by-elections.
Labour overturned a considerably 18,000-vote majority in the previously Conservative-held constituency of Wellingborough Northamptonshire, and an 11,220 majority in Kingswood Gloucestershire overnight. The Wellingborough election had been triggered by its former MP, prominent right-winger Peter Bone who had held the seat nearly 20 years, being excluded from parliament over sexual abuse allegations.
In Kingswood, MP Chris Skidmore resigned from Parliament in protest over the government giving new licenses to oil companies to drill in the North Sea. Skidmore was derided as “non-Conservative” and “gratuitous” by former party colleagues over the resignation, which inflicted another damaging by-election on the government.
While by-elections (special elections) have traditionally trended against governing parties in British political history and are characterised by low turnout, the degree of the swing from right to left is seen as indicative of the strength of feeling in the country against the Conservatives, who have now been in government for over 13 years and have remarkably little to show for it.
Indeed, the swing in Wellingborough from Labour to Tory at 28.5 per cent is the second largest of its type since the Second World War, the BBC notes.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak attempted to downplay the significance of the losses on Friday morning. He told broadcasters: “Mid-term by-elections are always difficult for incumbent governments… I think if you look at the results, very low turnout, it shows that we have got work to do to show people that we are delivering on their priorities and that is what I am absolutely determined to do.
“But also shows that there isn’t a huge amount of enthusiasm for the alternative in Keir Starmer and the Labour Party and that is because they don’t have a plan.”
While grabbing no wins, the evening is also being treated as a success by the former Brexit Party, now called the Reform Party, who achieved double-digit results in both seats. Beating the Liberal Democrats in both — the third party in British politics for the past century — Party leader Richard Tice hailed the “defining moment”, reports The Telegraph. He said: “we’ve had our best two results without question.
“It shows we are a significant force now in British politics and that people have got to take us seriously. We’re delighted, we’re the party on the up and it’s quite clear that more and more people are looking for something different.”
The two election wins for Labour come after a bruising few weeks for party leader Sir Keir Starmer, who has seen a poll dip after a rapid succession of antisemitism scandals, forcing him to suspend three candidates in two weeks for their comments on Israel and Gaza. While in normal times the speed and depth of the drop — five points in a matter of days — would be a major issue, as it stands Labour’s lead over the Conservatives nationally is so enormous it has barely registered.
Political analyst Chris Hopkins said of the wobble, before this week’s by-election results: “if this drop in the polls is a consequence of their recent troubles, it does not bode well for a short campaign. A Conservative machine in full swing and the inevitable increased scrutiny from the media may well be very uncomfortable for the Labour Party.”
The antisemitism scandals may yet bring pain for Labour in the short term too, as another by-election is coming at the end of the month and the Israel-Gaza war, the response to it by a Labour candidate, and his dismissal by the party are all weighing heavily. As previously reported, then-Labour candidate for the Rochdale by-election Azhar Ali had said at a closed meeting which was secretly recorded that Israel had allowed the Hamas terror attack that killed 1,200 deliberately, to give the government a pretext for war.
While Labour initially stood by their man, the fact Ali would express the conspiracy theory eventually became too much to bear and the party withdrew support. As feeling on the ground in Rochdale now shows, the move left Labour stuck between two constituencies: the large Muslim demographic in the area which supports tough talk on Israel, and national sentiment which abhors antisemitism and wants to see Labour reformed after the dark days of antisemitism scandals under its previous leader.
Veteran British leftist George Galloway, who has made support for Palestine and bitter opposition to Israel an intrinsic part of his political identity, has been quick to exploit this divide and has quickly emerged as the forerunner in the by-election. The potential for a win by Galloway’s micro-party is a real rarity in British politics which generally prefers the candidates of establishment parties.
As reported by The Times, Galloway refers to himself as “Gaza George” in his campaign literature and has a track record of winning seats in Labour-held areas with large Muslim populations, his party having done so in Bethnal Green in 2005 and Bradford in 2012.
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