NATO Sees ‘Unprecedented’ Spending Increases, But 13 Members Still ‘Delinquent’

That slightly over half of NATO members are meeting their treaty obligations is a subject for celebration shows how far the alliance has come since President Trump made it his mission to force positive change, but yet also how far it still has to go.

18 of NATO’s 31 member states are expected to hit the two per cent of GDP spent on defence minimum required by alliance treaty this year after a period of “unprecedented” increases in defence spending among allies. While 13 states continue to be what Donald Trump calls “delinquents”, the average spend over all European NATO members is now at a point where, for the first time in 25 years, they are spending two per cent of GDP on defence among them.

At the end of the Cold War, NATO’s European members spent an average of 3.5 per cent of their GDP on defence — compared to 6.5 per cent by the United States — but this rapidly fell in the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union. European states spent an average of 2.5 per cent by the early 1990s, and incredibly spending continued to fall even after Russia’s occupation of Crimea and a pledge by all members to do better, both in 2014, hitting just 1.44 per cent by 2015.

That all changed with the bullish talk of Donald Trump in the runup to the 2016 Presidential Election, and after in office, where he warned members to start paying their dues. Defence spending of European states started to rise from that time, going from 1.56 per cent in 2019 to 1.85 in 2023, and finally a projected 2 per cent in 2024.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said today:

…we are making real progress. Today I can announce our latest figures. Since the investment pledge was made in 2014, European allies and Canada have added more than $600 billion for defence. Last year we saw an unprecedented rise of 11 per cent, across European allies and Canada. This year, I expect 18 allies to spend two per cent of their GDP on defence. That is another record number, a six-fold increase from 2014 when only three allies met the target.

In 2024, NATO allies in Europe will invest a combined total of $380 billion in defence. For the first time, this amounts to two per cent of their combined GDP. So we are making real progress. European allies are spending more. However, some allies still have a way to go.

Stoltenberg reiterated that “two per cent is a minimum”, admonishing the many NATO members that haven’t made that figure, and even those that have which see it as a target rather than the floor. Stoltenberg has praised President Trump for helping force up NATO spending figures in the past, saying his “message is having a real impact… all allies have stopped the cuts” in 2019, but changed tack today, warning against taking Trump’s recent remarks on NATO literally.

Stoltenberg said:

We can never take peace for granted, but there is no imminent military threat against any NATO ally. NATO will continue there is no room for miscalculation in Moscow about our readiness and resolve to protect all allies… we should give no room for miscalculation or misunderstanding.

President Trump had said last week: “You didn’t pay? You’re delinquent?… No I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay. You gotta pay your bills”, sparking public expressions of outrage among European leaders. A report in the establishment Times of London noted, however, that many realised the bombastic talk was in fact an “appallingly cavalier but necessary wake-up call” that they took “seriously but not literally”.

“After all, many European leaders concede that he basically has a point… [defence spending is] nowhere close to where they need to be if Europe is to take primary responsibility for its own defence”, they said.