The British Conservative Party is facing an “extinction event” with a comprehensive poll predicting a defeat on the scale of the loss to Tony Blair’s Labour in 1997 on the backs of growing anger over failures to control migration and the rise of the Nigel Farage-founded Reform UK.
A YouGov survey of 14,000 people released in The Telegraph newspaper on Sunday found that the Conservatives will win just 169 seats in the House of Commons, a decline of 196 from the last general election in 2019. This would outpace the seismic defeat of the party in 1997 when Sir John Major saw his Conservatives lose 178 seats to Tony Blair and the Labour Party. Meanwhile, Labour is predicted to secure 385 seats in the Commons, giving the left-wing party a stonking 120-seat majority.
The predicted electoral catastrophe is expected to be driven in large part by a collapse in support from Brexit voters, with every single ‘Red Wall’ constituency won over by Boris Johnson from Labour in 2019 on the promise of completing the UK’s withdrawal from the EU predicted to be lost in the next election.
The survey found that 80 per cent of people who backed the Tories in 2019 but would not today voted in favour of Brexit in the 2016 Referendum.
The sharp decline in support from Leave voters comes amid growing anger over successive Conservative governments to reign in migration, a key promise of the Brexit campaign. Rather than cutting migration, it has instead hit record highs, with Boris Johnson’s immigration bill vastly expanding the number of foreigners eligible to come to the country, resulting in surges in non-European immigration to the country.
Last year, net migration hit a record high of 672,000 and more than 1.2 million over the past two years. Although illegal boat migration declined last year, over 29,000 aliens landed on British shores last year.
Responding to the survey, former chief Brexit negotiator Lord Frost wrote that the results were “stunning – stunningly awful,” adding: “It makes clear that the Tory party faces a 1997-style wipeout, if we are lucky.”
“None of this is driven by huge Labour popularity. It is the result of the collapse of our vote, a collapse itself driven by dissatisfaction on policy – cost of living, tax, the health service and, above all, immigration,” the former cabinet minister continued.
“Three-quarters of the voters who have left us are Leave voters. Even now, this group puts the Tories ahead of Labour on the economy. The big problem is immigration, legal as well as illegal.”
Therefore, Lord Frost urged the government “to be as tough as it takes on immigration” in order to rebuild trust among the public. This was echoed by former Downing Street pollster James Johnson who said that while the Conservative Party’s chances of staving off defeat have “all but vanished”, the only possible means of winning back Leave voters would be to “get tough on migration… fast”.
Even if Sunak were able to crack down on migration and to finally begin large-scale removals of illegal migrants to asylum processing centres in Rwanda, the party will still face an uphill battle in holding onto power given the rise of the Nigel Farage-founded Reform UK party.
“Just imagine if Nigel Farage delivered on his hints and came back to politics. Two or three extra points for Reform, a bit more tactical voting, and this might start to look like an extinction event,” Lord Frost warned.
Unlike the previous election, the Tories will also be facing a challenger to their political right. In 2019, the Brexit Party under Nigel Farage formed an election pact with Boris Johnson’s Conservatives to stand down in key constituencies to ensure a large majority for the government to be able to finally take Britain out of the European Union after years of delays. However, with Brexit off the table this round, the Breixt Party — now renamed Reform UK — has vowed to put forward candidates in every race in England, Scotland, and Wales.
While Reform UK is not currently predicted to win any seats in the parliament — being stymied by the first past the post voting system, the challenge from the populist right-wing party will be a deciding factor in 96 losses for the Tories, according to the survey. This, The Telegraph noted, would be the difference between the Labour Party securing a majority or a hung parliament.
It is possible that the damage done to the Tories by Reform could be even greater, however, given that the survey released on Sunday did not factor in a possible return of former leader Nigel Farage to frontline politics. At present, Reform is hovering around nine or ten per cent in the polls with Mr Farage standing on the sidelines. Should the Brexit champion once again throw his hat in the ring as a candidate, it would instantly take the party to around 14 per cent in the polls and potentially even higher, according to polling expert John Curtice.
Mr Farage said over the weekend that he was considering entering the election as a candidate for Reform “more seriously than ever before” after a separate survey predicted that he would easily secure a seat in the Parliament — a position that has long eluded the political campaigner — were he to run against incumbent Conservative MP Giles Watling in the Essex constituency of Clacton.
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