The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) could grow again in just a matter of weeks as the alliance and its European neighbours react to Russia’s renewed invasion of Ukraine.
Sweden’s foreign minister says he has received the word of his Turkish counterpart that they would be ratifying their accession within “weeks”, removing one of the final hurdles to further NATO growth. The Nordic state abandoned centuries of non-alignment in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year and, alongside Finland, applied to join the alliance.
While Finland’s application was ratified relatively quickly, Sweden’s has dragged on, with opposition from both Turkey and Hungary preventing ratification. At least one of those objections appears to be on the verge of falling away, however, with Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billström coming out of the NATO foreign ministers meeting on Wednesday saying Turkey had placed “no new demands” on the country in order to get its signature.
Billström said, per Politico: “He told me that he expected the ratification to take place within weeks. And of course, we don’t take anything for granted from the side of Sweden, but we look forward to this being completed… There were no new demands from the Turkish government, so we look [at] our part as being fulfilled.”
As in the case with Finland, once all member states have ratified Sweden’s application it can theoretically become a full alliance member within days.
NATO requires unanimity from its members on important decisions like admitting new members. This is because article five of the treaty is a major commitment, recognising that an attack on one in North America or Europe is an attack at all, triggering war.
Turkey had opposed Sweden’s accession to NATO over longstanding disagreements between the two nations, particularly Sweden treating Kurdish fighters as refugees, whereas Ankara says they are terrorists fleeing prosecution. Sweden also has a historic culture of freedom of speech which has outraged Turkish lawmakers, given the use of this freedom to stage Quran burning protests.
“As long as you allow my holy book, the Qur’an, to be burned and torn apart, we will not say yes to your entry into NATO. Our view of Finland is positive, but not of Sweden,” President Erdogan said, in reference to Finland blocking applications to hold Qur’an burning protests.
While Turkey was seen as the main impediment to Sweden’s membership, Hungary has also yet to sign Sweden’s application. Sweden has long been a critic of Hungary’s government led by conservative Viktor Orban, with a government minister comparing Budapest to 1930s Germany in 2019.
Hungary, for its part, has also nettled the Swedes on occasion, with the Swedish education minister telling Budapest to please stop using Sweden as an example of what a country with failed immigration policies looks like.
During NATO negotiations for Sweden, Hungary has asked Stockholm to give a pledge that it will stop criticising Hungary for being an unapologetically Christian, conservative country in return for it accepting their application to join the alliance. “Some Hungarian MPs do not feel comfortable because they have witnessed in recent years that certain Swedish government members made a habit of continually questioning the state of democracy in Hungary, they kept insulting Hungarian voters and MPs, and through them the whole of Hungary,” Orbán said.
NATO is presently experiencing a period of rapid growth following Russia’s military action against Ukraine. Finland became a member in April this year, and Sweden could follow in weeks. The alliance has also said in a statement from its Secretary-General this week that “Allies agree that Ukraine will become a member of NATO”, although this will have to wait, he said, until the nation was no longer at war and had enacted certain reforms.