Russia hasn’t launched one of its advanced cruise missiles against Ukraine in months and is likely building up stocks ready for a winter assault on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, Britain has said in an intelligence digest.
There hasn’t been a use of one of Russia’s “premier air launched cruise missiles” for nearly two months, the UK Ministry of Defence says, and this is “likely allowing it to build up a substantial stock of these weapons” as new supplies are delivered. This in turn, the intelligence digest from the British government states, is “highly likely” so the country can launch a major assault on Ukraine’s infrastructure come winter.
Last year, Russia spent the winter months entrenching its positions as fighting slowed, but also launching concentrated attacks on the national infrastructure like gas pipelines and power stations in an apparent bid to freeze the Ukrainian people into submission. It was claimed that by the end of Winter 40 per cent of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure had been damaged.
In a statement last December, Human Rights Watch condemned Russia for “leveraging civilian harm as a tactic of war”, saying the precision strikes had left “millions without electricity, water, heat”.
Yulia Gorbunova, the body’s Ukraine specialist said of the strikes that: “Russia appears to be seeking unlawfully to create terror among civilians and make life unsustainable for them… With the coldest winter temperatures yet to come, conditions will become more life-threatening while Russia seems intent on making life untenable for as many Ukrainian civilians as possible.”
This year, Ukraine has made clear if Russia attempts to freeze its people out, it will simply return the favour. As reported by the American Atlantic Council think tank last week, “Ukraine may actually be better prepared to defend itself that it was in late 2022. Crucially, the country is now also in a position to retaliate.”
In terms of what it can use to hit back at the Russian mainland, the report noted Kyiv had considerably expanded its drone capabilities and had already launched air strikes inside Russia, including against the very airbases from which the aircraft that would launch the cruise missiles in question operate. Ukraine now also has longer-range cruise missiles as donated by countries like the United Kingdom and France. These missiles have already been used to devastating effect in strikes like the one against the Black Sea fleet, portrayed as a rare strategic success in the otherwise reasonably static war.
That is not to say all is rosy, however, with the Council noting the ammunition for Ukraine’s anti-air systems remains expensive and in short supply, while Russia has been improving its domestic production of cheap and plentiful one-way attack drones, which can wear down Ukraine’s defences before exploiting gaps with the more sophisticated missiles held in reserve.
Last week, Ukrainian President Zelensky said he was anticipating “the intensification of Russian terror against energy facilities” this winter and that he had discussed the matter with the Slovakian President.