A British defence digest has underlined the degree to which the Ukraine War has become an essentially static conflict, a view that was expressed just hours after Ukraine’s top General called it a “stalemate” and made several allusions to the trench warfare of the 1914-18 Great War.
The southern theatre of the war in Ukraine “remains relatively static between the two main lines” and recent operations conform to a now-established “trend” of favouring the defender, Britain’s Military of Defence notes in its latest Ukraine situation briefing.
The bulletin further notes a recent Russian attempt to take more territory in the Donbas has also met this norm of favouring the defender, with their assault “floundering” in the face of Ukrainian strength.
Among the reasons given by the Ministry for this bogging down of the war to a point where either side is making no real progress is the sheer size of the war. With a 1,200km (750 mile) front line, the British assertion is neither side has enough soldiers to spare from simply protecting the front to generate a breakthrough force of sufficient size anywhere.
Also cited is the role — or lack thereof — of airpower in the Ukraine War. The MOD notes: “A major factor in this phenomenon has highly likely been the relative side-lining of tactical air power: both sides have maintained credible air defences, preventing combat jets from providing effective air support for assaults.”
While the NATO-based and planned counteroffensive launched this year was based on doctrine that provides for highly mobile forces striking quickly, this type of war relies on air superiority. Russia has a considerable air force but has so far decided not to commit it in strength, and Ukraine’s small air force has not been reinforced by the U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets it has spent the past year begging the West to donate.
The British bulletin on the status of the Ukraine War as one that has essentially stalled came just days after similar remarks by Ukraine’s Commander in Chief, who compared the situation to World War I. Speaking to the British centrist-globalist magazine The Economist, four-star General Valery Zaluzhny said: “Just like in the first world war we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate.”
The General said there was likely to be no “deep and beautiful breakthrough” without some decisive advance in technology or capability for one side or another. He cited the very high quality of battlefield information possessed by both Ukraine and Russia, meaning with modern observation equipment including drones and sensors, both sides could see exactly what each other was doing and possessed sufficient weaponry to stop any intended breakthrough attack without being the victim of a surprise assault.
“The simple fact is that we see everything the enemy is doing and they see everything we are doing”, the General said.
Given the situation, the General made implicit that he was giving up on the highly mobile NATO doctrine and instead was putting time into studying the battles of the Great War, where static trench warfare was eventually overcome by new shock assault tactics on one side and the development of the tank on the other. With technology levels between the two combatants at a basic parity, the General noted he had reached the same position as the armies of the 1914-18 war, remarking: “I realised that is exactly where we are because just like then, the level of our technological development today has put both us and our enemies in a stupor.”
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