The supposed exile of Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin could be a smokescreen through which a surprise attack could be mounted against Ukraine from Belarus, the former head of the British military has warned.
Following a dramatic and turbulent 24 hours, Yevgeny Prigozhin, a longstanding ally of Vladimir Putin and head of the mercenary Wagner Private Military Company, agreed to stand down from his alleged attempt at a coup against the military leadership in the Kremlin.
With his forces reportedly reaching striking distance of Moscow — seemingly without much resistance — after taking over the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, notable for being the home of the Russian military HQ for operations in Ukraine, Prigozhin agreed to stand down his men following negotiations with Belarussian strongman Alexander Lukashenko, another key ally of Putin.
Concluding a rollercoaster ride of a day in Russian politics, the Wagner chief reportedly agreed to relocate to Belarus in exile after securing assurances that charges of “armed rebellion” would be dropped against him and that Putin would not persue action against him.
Many Western observers have portrayed the turn of events as a deeply damaging and embarrassing day for Vladimir Putin, with many claiming that his grip on power will be diminished following the alleged coup attempt.
However, General Lord Richard Dannatt, the former chief of general staff in the British Army, suggested that while the events appeared to portray the Russian military leadership in “disarray”, it is possible that the Wagner mercenary chief could stage another offensive on behalf of Putin from Belarus, potentially opening up another front in the war in Ukraine during Zelensky’s fledgling counteroffensive.
“We haven’t heard the last of Prigozhin,” he told the BBC.
In a separate interview, General Dannatt told Sky News: “He’s gone to Belarus and this is, I think, a matter of some concern now… What we don’t know, and what we will discover in the next hours and days, is how many of his fighters have actually gone with him.”
“If he has kept an effective fighting force around him, then that presents a threat from the north,” the former British army commander said, noting that last year’s invasion of Ukraine began with attempts by the Russians to storm Kyiv from Belarus.
“The Russians exploited that in the past, quite disastrously, but it’s quite possible that they might do so again, led by Prigozhin and whatever troops he’s got,” he said.
General Dannatt said that if he were running the war operation in Ukraine, he would increase observation to the north of Kyiv, which is less than 100 miles from the Belarusian border, as well as stationing some “manoeuvrable units” near the Ukrainian capital in case they need to “fend off another attack from Belarus.”
“Although it seems that this matter is closed, I think that it is anything but that and that the after-shocks will be felt for quite a while,” he warned.
The former chief of general staff in the British Army also said that the Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov could be on the chopping block for allowing the Wagner forces to get so close to Moscow, which ironically would fulfil the stated aims of Prigozhin, who has accused both of incompetence in their handling of the war in Ukraine and has called for them to face “justice”.
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