Counteroffensive Will Trigger ‘Russian Withdrawal’ This Summer, Claims Ukraine Defence Minister

The long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive will force a “withdrawal” of Russian forces, Defence Minister Oleksiy Reznikov claimed in an interview on Tuesday.

Ukraine’s Defence Minister said that the continued objective of his embattled government is to “liberate the occupied territories” including the breakaway Donbas areas of Luhansk and Donetsk, both of which have self-declared to be independent Republics aligned with Moscow, and the Crimean peninsula, which was illegally annexed by Russia in 2014 under the watch of the Obama administration.

In an interview with Ouest France, Oleksiy Reznikov refused to confirm when the anticipated counteroffensive against Russia will begin, or for that matter, whether it has already begun. However, the defence minister expressed confidence in Ukraine’s ability to push back Russian forces, despite recently losing what was once considered a key stronghold in Bakhmut to the Wagner mercenary group.

“I am sure that we will be able to make breakthroughs during this counter-offensive in the South, in the East, at two or three places on the battlefield,” he said in comments reported by Le Figaro.

“This will trigger a new movement of withdrawal of Russians from our territory,” Reznikov continued. “Because they have made a new mobilisation, but they are many beginners, without experience, without mastery of weapons. Wagner used detainees, and for the siege of Bakhmut, for eight months, 60,000 men died or were wounded in combat.”

Confirming that the plan is still to try to extend Kyiv’s control to its 1991 borders, which would include Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk, the defence minister said: “My personal conviction, my instinct tells me that we have a serious chance of making a breakthrough this year, especially during the summer.”

In order to be successful, however, Reznikov claimed that Western-supplied weapons, military equipment and ammunition will be vital.

Earlier this month, President Joe Biden gave approval for Western allies to supply Ukraine with American-made F-16 fighter jets, however, so far no country has committed to sending their stock to the war zone. The United States has also said there is no chance F-16s will figure in the counteroffensive, and that those weapons are meant for Ukraine’s long-term security, not near-term fighting.

Following a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky in Japan at the G7 in Hiroshima, Biden claimed that the Ukrainian leader had given him “flat assurance” that Western-supplied F-16 fighter planes would not be used to attack the Russian mainland. Yet, the 80-year-old president did not specify whether this would include contested areas such as Crimea, which both Moscow and Kyiv claim rights to.

“We need more than 100 aircraft,” Reznikov said, adding to the French publication that he was doubtful that Paris would provide Ukraine with any of its supply of Dassault Rafale twin-engine fighter jets, noting that the NATO country is in short supply of the warplane itself, saying: “It’s a question of production, time. It’s not a political question.”

In addition to fighter jets, Kyiv is also lobbying European powers, notably France and Germany to provide them with long-range missiles, yet, both Berlin and Paris have so far shied away from dumping their stocks of Taurus and Scalp missiles, respectively, into the region.

The United Kingdom, which has played a leading role in arming and training Ukrainian forces since last year’s invasion, has begun shipping Anglo-French-designed Storm Shadow long-range missiles to the country, with an official range of 250km (155 miles). Over the weekend, the Kremlin claimed to have successfully shot down two Storm Shadows, while condemning Westminster for allegedly trying to “up the ante in the conflict”.

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