Serious gas shortages across the EU are now on the cards for next year, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has warned.
The European Union is facing the prospect of a gas supply shortfall measured in the tens of billions of cubic meters next year, the bloc’s President, Ursula von der Leyen announced during a press conference on Monday.
Von der Leyen attempted to balance the warning with the claim that the bloc has “been able to manage” the energy crisis this year, despite the fact that experts have warned that Europe risks permanent deindustrialisation as a result of energy being rendered utterly unaffordable for many businesses.
Speaking at the launch of a report into the EU’s future energy prospects penned by the International Energy Agency, the Commission President praised the block as having successfully withstood “Russian blackmail” in the face of Moscow cutting pipeline supply by 80 per cent, arguing that the union’s green agenda policies ultimately had a positive effect on the situation.
However, von der Leyen also admitted that the EU had overall gotten very lucky this year, with both the unseasonably warm winter weather and China’s harsh COVID lockdown strategy helping to drive down international demand for hydrocarbons.
“It might be possible that Russia cuts the rest of the pipeline gas supply; China could lift the COVID-19 restrictions and thus go back to energy demand on the global market on pre-COVID-19 level; and of course, this year we benefitted from an extraordinary warm winter – this could also be different next year,” von der Leyen conceded.
Overall, the Commission President claimed that, even with gas-saving measures currently in place, the EU could face an energy shortfall “of up to 30 billion cubic metres of gas next year”, something she says can only be offset by even more green measures, as well as increasing the amount of liquified natural gas the bloc imports annually.
Von der Leyen’s claims were largely echoed by Fatih Birol, the executive director of the International Energy Agency, who also cited so-called “demand destruction” caused by massive price increases as one of the reasons why many nations have faired better than initially expected.
However, such “demand destruction” when it comes to the bloc’s businesses could have massive long-term implications, with industry experts warning back in September that the EU now runs the risk of “permanent deindustrialisation” as a result of the surging price of energy.
“We are deeply concerned that the winter ahead could deliver a decisive blow to many of our operations, and we call on EU and Member State leaders to take emergency action to preserve their strategic electricity-intensive industries and prevent permanent job losses,” a letter sent by metals industry group Eurometaux to von der Leyen read.
“Producers face electricity and gas costs over ten times higher than last year, far exceeding the sales price for their products,” it continued. “We know from experience that once a plant is closed it very often becomes a permanent situation, as re-opening implies significant uncertainty and cost.”
To make matters even worse, while the EU Commission President appears to be already patting herself on the back for avoiding complete energy chaos this year, reports actually indicate that the likes of Germany could still very much be in trouble.
Speaking to the German newspaper Tagesspiegel, the head of the country’s Federal Network Agency energy watchdog, Klaus Müller, warned that the country was very much still at risk due to a sudden drop in temperatures across northern Europe.
According to the official, the recent cold snap has thrown the country off from its plan to cut gas usage by 20 per cent, a measure that is reportedly necessary to avoid serious shortages.
“…currently the total savings are only 13 per cent,” Müller told the paper. “At temperatures of minus ten degrees, gas consumption skyrockets. This is a risk, especially if such a cold spell lasts longer.”
He nevertheless goes on to tell the paper that, despite the serious issues. that the threat of blackouts “doesn’t worry [him] too much”.
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