Food Crisis – EU Plan to Bypass Russian Grain Blockade ‘Highly Unlikely’ to Work: UK Defence Ministry

An EU plan to export Ukrainian grain using the country’s train networks to alleviate the global food crisis is “highly unlikely” to work, the UK’s Ministry of Defence has said.

Britain’s Ministry for Defence has said that it is “highly unlikely” that the global food crisis could be alleviated by using Ukraine’s railway systems as a substitute for its blockaded ports to export grain.

With millions of tons of harvested grain stuck in the country due to Russia’s blockade of the Black Sea, the European Union had hoped that it could ship produce by train to the country’s borders, and then on to ports in the likes of neighbouring Poland.

This, in turn, the bloc seemed to believe would at least somewhat ease the global food crisis, with the absence of Ukrainian wheat — which traditionally makes up a significant share of the global grain trade — being badly felt by many in the developing world.

However, according to an assessment published on the UK Ministry of Defence’s social media, Ukraine’s on-land infrastructure simply isn’t up to the task, and that the only real way of getting the grain out of the country is via the Black Sea.

“Ukraine’s overland export mechanisms are highly unlikely to substitute for the shortfall in shipping capacity caused by the Russian blockade,” the British ministry said in a post on its social media.

“Fighting has already placed indirect pressure on global grain prices,” it continued, noting that the Russian blockade had dissuaded commercial entities from using Ukraine’s ports.

“While the threat of Russia’s naval blockade continues to deter access by commercial shipping to Ukrainian ports, the resulting supply shortfalls will further increase the price of many staple products,” it concluded.

While others had already raised significant issues regarding the EU’s plan to see grain pulled from Ukraine by rail, the Ministry of Defence’s report seems to put to bed the possibility that the vital supplies stuck in Ukraine could be exported by land.

However, a plan formulated by Lithuania and backed by London to secure Ukrainian produce seems even more farfetched.

Involving a so-called “coalition of the willing”, the plan floated by Lithuania’s foreign minister is for a number of nations to build a naval coalition of warships which would forcibly ensure safe passage for ships looking to land in Ukraine’s ports.

While the minister insists that this would not constitute a military operation, the project would involve both minesweeping and the provision of point defence for ships looking to travel to and from Ukraine safely, both of which constitute a clearly military tasking.

Also, while ensuring “freedom of navigation” for merchant ships is one of the clearest and most beneficial purposes of modern world navies, such a project would entail risking a confrontation between Russia and NATO linked forces, which in turn risks an escalation in hostilities.

All the while, accusations have flown that Russia is stealing Ukrainian grain, with images emerging that some claim show vessels from the country parked next to grain silos, suggesting they may be being used to seize the country’s produce.

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