A senior researcher at a Finnish think-tank has claimed that Russia may try to flood Finland with migrants in retaliation for joining NATO, as some reports suggest the country may announce an application to the alliance soon.
Charly Salonius-Pasternak, a senior researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, has warned that Russia may retaliate against Finland joining the NATO alliance in several different ways.
“It could be diplomatic counterattacks, cyberattacks or, for example, the exploitation of large numbers of asylum seekers as a kind of hybrid threat,” Salonius-Pasternak told public broadcaster Yle this week.
Sending over large numbers of migrants in a form of “hybrid warfare” was seen last year when Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko, a close ally of Russian president Vladimir Putin, was accused of sending tens of thousands of migrants across the border to the European Union, with most of the migrants crossing into Poland — or attempting to — and Lithuania.
In November of last year, Finland’s Interior Minister Maria Ohisalo stated that Finland was prepared to close its border in case it was subjected to the same type of “hybrid warfare” as has been seen in NATO states that border Belarus.
Mikko Lehmus, the head of the Situation and Risk Analysis Centre of the Border Guard, said he was not confident Finland would be able to close down its land border entirely, however.
“[A]ttention is focused on Finland’s long eastern border. It must be clear to everyone that it cannot be comprehensively fenced or covered by other obstacle devices,” Lehmus said.
According to a report from the Finnish tabloid newspaper Iltalehti, the government of Finland is expected to announce it will likely be seeking NATO membership shortly — a huge departure from the country’s traditional stance as neutral.
Opinions on joining NATO among the Finnish public have shifted dramatically in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February, however, with a poll released by Yle at the end of February revealing 53 per cent of Finns were supportive of joining NATO, compared to just 19 per cent in 2017.
Should Finland seek to join NATO, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stated last month that both it could be fast-tracked for membership, as could neighbouring Sweden.