There is a “realistic possibility” that Russian forces “facing considerable supply and morale issues” may be encircled by Ukrainian counter-attackers near Kyiv (Kiev).
“Ukraine is increasing pressure on Russian forces north-east of Kyiv. Russian forces along this axis are already facing considerable supply and morale issues,” the British government’s Ministry of Defence asserted in a Defence Intelligence update on Wednesday.
“Ukrainian forces are carrying out successful counter attacks against Russian positions in towns on the outskirts of the capital, and have probably retaken Makariv and Moschun,” they continued, adding that “There is a realistic possibility that Ukrainian forces are now able to encircle Russian units in Bucha and Irpin.”
BBC editor Jeremy Bowen has also suggested that Ukrainian troops have been “telling me for a few days that Bucha [is] encircled” and that Russian supply lines in Irpin are being struck.
New York Times reporting based on what are claimed to be Russian radio communications intercepted by ham radio enthusiasts do suggest the invaders have been put under significant pressure in Makariv and suffered from a lack of air support and fuel — although The Washington Post reported on Thursday that “reality doesn’t match [Ukrainian] government boasts of victory” in the Kyiv suburb, with the Russians still controlling part of it and the Ukrainians “under constant shelling of enemy artillery”.
Regardless, another British Defence Intelligence update on Friday morning claimed that “Ukrainian counter-attacks, and Russian Forces falling back on overextended supply lines, has allowed Ukraine to re-occupy towns and defensive positions up to 35 kilometres east of Kyiv,” and that the Ukrainians would be “likely to continue to attempt to push Russian Forces back along the north-western axis from Kyiv towards Hostomel Airfield.”
Russia, for its part, claimed in its March 25th update on the invasion — or “special military operation” — to have destroyed “[t]he largest of the remaining fuel bases of the armed forces of Ukraine, from which fuel was supplied to military units in the central part of the country” near Kyiv with warship-launched Kalibr cruise missiles on Thursday.