On the one-month anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine by Vladimir Putin’s forces, the Kremlin claimed that everything is going “according to plan” and that life is “returning to normal” for the areas “liberated” by Russia.

Despite reports of heavy losses for the world’s fifth-largest military, allegedly including numerous generals killed in the field, as well as a recent high-profile defection from a Putin advisor, Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has claimed that all is going as planned in the so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine.

“Exactly one month since the start of the special military operation in Ukraine; it is going according to plan, and all the stated goals will be achieved,” Zakharova said per the official account for the MFA on Twitter.

“Life is returning to normal in the territories already liberated from nationalists,” the diplomat added.

Russia has so far failed to secure the breakaway regions in the Donbas — which border Russia and have long been controlled by Russian mercenaries and separatists — with fighting continuing to rage in Donetsk and Luhansk. Prior to the invasion, Russian leader Vladimir Putin recognised the two eastern Ukrainian regions as independent.

Though Russia launched a multi-pronged invasion on the 25th of March, some Western officials have said that Putin may abandon his efforts to take Kyiv (Kiev) and on the other fronts in the west of Ukraine in order to consolidate the Russian Armed Forces efforts in the Donbas.

“I think what’s clear is that the original Russian plan of being able to have three separate [axes] of manoeuvre, operate them all simultaneously, and achieve their objectives quickly has been frustrated. So whilst we’ll see continued bombardment of key cities, I think it likely that we’ll see a concentration of manoeuvre operations in the east,” a Western official told The Times of London.

British intelligence has also claimed that there is a “realistic” situation in which Russian soldiers “facing considerable supply and morale issues” might be encircled and potentially routed by Ukrainian forces surrounding Kyiv.

It is currently unclear exactly how many Russian soldiers have died during the invasion, though a NATO official has claimed that the death toll likely stands between 7,000 and 15,000, with up to 40,000 either captured, missing, wounded, or killed.

Russia, for its part, has only officially admitted to 498 deaths. However, on Sunday, a pro-Kremlin paper Komsomolskaya Pravda published a quickly deleted article on its website claiming that 9,861 Russian soldiers have died so far. The paper went on to assert that it was hacked. Ukrainian state media has claimed that around 15,300 Russians have been killed in the fighting.

Reports have also indicated that as many as 20 Russian generals have died in the field — however, this figure is unconfirmed and widely disputed, with Putin only admitting to the death of one general to date.

Despite this, the Russian military maintains a significant advantage over Ukrainian forces in manpower, weapons, and military vehicles, with Ukraine reportedly being entirely dependent on shipments of arms from foreign powers to maintain the fight now — so a prolonged war may turn to Russia’s benefit.

“Russia retains, in overall terms, significant materiel and personnel reserves that it can draw upon,” a Western source told The Guardian.

The Washington Post has also reported that “reality doesn’t match [Ukrainian] government boasts of victory” in the Kyiv suburb of Makariv, for example, claiming that Ukrainian forces in the supposedly recaptured city continue to be “under constant shelling of enemy artillery”.

Yet perhaps potentially more concerning for Putin may be the defection of one of his prominent advisors this week, Anatoly Chubais.

Chubais, who previously served as a key figure in the privatization of the Russian economy following the fall of the communist Soviet Union under Boris Yeltsin, is reported by Bloomberg to have resigned and fled the country to Turkey over his “opposition to President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine”.

Though the former deputy prime minister was not involved in military affairs — most recently serving as Moscow’s international climate envoy — the move marks the highest-profile defection during the war to date.

Confirming the defection, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov said: “Yes. Chubais has resigned voluntarily. And it is up to him whether to leave or not.”

Follow Kurt Zindulka on Twitter here @KurtZindulka