The Conservatives will only win a majority in the House of Commons at the next election if Boris Johnson delivers Brexit on October 31st.
The ComRes poll, seen by The Telegraph, was presented at a fringe event at last week’s Tory Party conference. It validated the predictions by many Brexiteers that failure to deliver Brexit by the deadline will result in a major electoral loss for the party.
“This polling shows what every MP must know. The UK is yearning to move on. It’s time to get Brexit done, on time, do or die,” said Steve Baker, chairman of the Conservative Party’s Brexiteer European Reseach Group (ERG).
Even a slight delay would cost the Tories an election, the survey revealed. The poll of 2,050 adults found that is the country left the European Union after yet another extension, the part would be 14 seats short of a majority if it was with a late deal, and 18 short if late and without an agreement.
Only leaving on time would result in a majority for the party, either a 118-seat majority with a deal or 114-seat majority without a deal.
The projections highlight the necessity for the Tories to deliver Brexit to survive as a party. However, the Labour Party’s recent movements demonstrate that if the Tories do not deliver Brexit by the next election, there may be no Brexit at all.
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn confirmed on Thursday that his first act as prime minister would be to “immediately legislate” a second referendum.
Mr Corbyn has said that as the leader of a future government, he would negotiate an even softer Brexit deal and put that option against Remain on the referendum ballot paper.
“Within three months of coming to power, a Labour government will secure a sensible deal, based on the terms we have long advocated and discussed with the EU, trade unions and businesses, including a new customs union, a close single market relationship and guarantees of rights and protections.
“Within six months of being elected, we will put that deal to a public vote alongside Remain,” Mr Corbyn said.
It has long been a feature of European Union “democracy” that national votes and referenda that go against Brussels’ interests are ignored and run again, this strategy having been used several times in Denmark, the Netherlands, France, and Ireland.
Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage remarked on the latest announcement, saying at a rally last night: “The Labour Party — genius — will negotiate a new deal with Brussels, put it to the electorate in a referendum, and then campaign against it. Work that one out!”
Mr Farage has said that he is preparing to stand candidates in every seat in the UK for the next election to deliver Brexit if Johnson fails to do so.
The Brexit Party leader has also made strong overtures to the Tories to make an election pact. A study showed his party is better placed than Johnson’s to win seats in working-class heartlands abandoned by Labour, so an alliance would be key to delivering a strong majority for Brexit. However, Mr Johnson has turned down offers of cooperation.