A number of media outlets are reporting that Theresa May’s Cabinet will be presented with an option to ramp up preparations for a clean break from the EU, with 11 ministers said to back a “Managed No Deal”.
The Times reports the Prime Minister will present the Cabinet with three options on Tuesday, with senior government figures telling the newspaper of record that the likely outcome is to support preparations for Brexit on World Trade Organization (WTO) terms, as the government is certain to lose the vote on the Withdrawal Agreement in the House of Commons on January 14th.
The other two options to be discussed are continuing on with preparations at their current pace, and a “switch off” of No Deal preparations in anticipation of a deal with the European Union going through.
Meanwhile, The Telegraph reports that Brexit secretary Stephen Barclay will unveil plans for ramping up no Deal preparations, with ministers being told that that is the “default” position if the deal negotiated with the EU is not approved by Parliament.
Whitehall will then pivot and make preparations for a clean break from the EU the Government’s main focus until Brexit day on March 29th, 2019, with all other non-essential government business cancelled.
“What I have always said is the closer we get to March 29, the more decisions will have to be taken [so that] we are prepared for a no-deal scenario,” a spokesman for Downing Street told newspaper.
On her way to Westminster on Tuesday morning, international development secretary Penny Mordaunt told Sky News that “[the Cabinet] will be discussing no deal planning today. It’s absolutely right we step up No Deal planning now.”
Sky News asked fellow Brexiteer Cabinet minister and leader of the House of Commons Andrea Leadsom if she thought a “Managed No Deal” was an option, with Mrs Leadsom saying, “In my view it certainly is if all else fails” before adding she still backed the Prime Minister’s deal.
The Telegraph also notes that the Treasury said the United Kingdom and European Union will apply the Common Transit Convention after Brexit, which will facilitate the simplified cross-border export of goods from the United Kingdom.
The arrangement will continue if Britain leaves the EU without a deal, with traders only needing to make a customs declaration and pay import taxes when the goods arrive at their destination, sparing border checks.
Financial Secretary to the Treasury Mel Stride told the newspaper, “Membership of the convention will support traders both under a new trade agreement with the EU, or in the unlikely event of No Deal.”
Media have been picking up on hitherto under-discussed plans for a “Managed No Deal,” with reports that 11 Cabinet ministers back the plan if Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement, which could lock Northern Ireland in regulatory alignment with the EU if its so-called “Irish backstop” provisions are triggered — threatening the integrity of the British Union — is voted down in Parliament.
There are several visions of what a “Managed No Deal” would look like, but would it would likely see the United Kingdom leaving in March without a formal deal but with various pracitcal arrangements with separate EU agencies to maintain continuity in certain areas, and could even involve a short transition period.
Suggestions include paying a fee for the shorter transition period, and to continue trading with the bloc tariff-free in preparation for a smooth transition to World Trade Organization rules while working on technology to allow goods to travel cross-border without disruptive customs checks.
Other proposals entail brokering mini-deals in areas such as aviation and pharmaceuticals, such as the air services deal recently signed with Switzerland — which, though not a member of the EU, subscribes to its aviation protocols.
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