Polls: Labour Facing Wipe-Out in UK General Election

One week into the General Election campaign, the Conservatives continue to maintain a strong lead in the polls, with predictions of historic gains in Scotland and Wales.

According to several polls, the opposition Labour Party faces electoral wipe-out, with the Conservatives on course to win a majority of well over 100 in the 650-seat House of Commons.

An ITV Wales/YouGov put the Tories on 40 per cent in Wales, 10 points ahead of the Labour party – the first time in the modern era that Labour has trailed in the polls in Wales. If repeated at the election, the Conservatives would win 21 Welsh seats, with Labour reduced to just 15. This would be the first time Labour has not won a general election in the country since 1922.

Meanwhile, UKIP’s support in Wales appears to have collapsed after Brexit, with the party falling from 13 per cent to six per cent since January. Many of those voters are going to the Conservatives.

Meanwhile, an ICM poll for The Guardian suggested the Conservatives have a lead on 17 per cent in seats Labour currently holds with majorities of 15 per cent or less, suggesting the Tories will gain 65 seats from Labour.

However, Martin Boon of ICM said the figures should be treated with caution due to the small sample size, although he did add: “It indicates significant losses for the Labour Party, and puts the Conservatives on course for around 400 seats.”

Overall, the poll gives the Conservatives a 21 per cent lead over Labour, in line with recent polls putting the lead in the low 20s.

The figures suggest Theresa May’s tactic of calling an early General Election is paying off. By focusing on Brexit as her main campaign point, and the weakness of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, she is bringing non-traditional Conservative voters to her party.

There are concerns, however, that a large Commons majority could lead to a softer Brexit deal as the staunchest Leave voices are drowned out.

Last week, Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson suggested an increased Tory majority could disempower “Brexiteer bastards” holding Theresa May “to ransom”.