David Cameron’s over-confidence in his own powers of persuasion appear to have made veteran Brussels insider Jean-Claude Juncker the near-certain choice as next president of the European Commission.
EU leaders whom Cameron thought he could persuade to join him in an alliance against Juncker have now decided to side with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and after initial hesitation Merkel now supports Juncker for the top job at the commission, the executive arm of the European Union.
Today it appears certain Cameron has wasted what political capital he had among his fellow national leaders in his opposition to Juncker.
His likely defeat over the matter has left claims the British prime minister made to eurosceptics – that he could persuade other leaders to join him in the reform of the EU – looking implausible.
Juncker is above all a symbol of “business as usual” in Brussels, yet one by one Cameron’s supposed allies in reform are agreeing they will back his nomination.
Yesterday Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann joined other leaders in coming down on the side of Juncker. Reuters reported she told an Austria newspaper that: “Juncker is not negotiable. If needed, Cameron should be outvoted by a qualified majority. We cannot allow a single person to dictate everything to us.”
She said that EU leaders are likely to override Cameron’s objections at a meeting of the European Council next Thursday and Friday and nominate Juncker.
The council’s nominee must be then approved by the European Parliament, which in the case of Juncker is a certainty since he has the support of the two biggest blocs in the parliament who together command a majority.
No candidate for head of the commission has ever been chosen over the objections of a British prime minister. Before the 2009 Lisbon Treaty came into force, each member of the European Council had the power to veto a choice, so an agreed candidate “emerged” from secret meetings and private negotiations.
The treaty introduced qualified majority voting to the nomination of the president of the commission. With it, Britain lost its veto.
As leader of the opposition, Cameron told the British people he gave them “a cast-iron guarantee” that he would hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty if the Conservatives came to power. Voters would have the choice to reject the transfer of more powers to Brussels which the Lisbon Treaty allowed.
Cameron later reneged on his promise.
At that time, Barry Legg, co-chairman of the Thatcherite, eurosceptic Bruges Group and former chief executive of the Conservative Party, said: “David Cameron’s future European policy is now incoherent, disingenuous and utterly unconvincing.”
Cameron’s coming humiliation at the European Council is the direct result of his willingness to surrender the veto over the nomination of the president of the commission to majority vote in the council.
Had the British people been free to reject the Lisbon Treaty, the Austrian Chancellor could not now be threatening that the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom will be outvoted by a qualified majority vote in the nomination of the head the commission, and Cameron would not be left with an EU policy which is “incoherent, disingenuous and utterly unconvincing.”