Countdown to the Oscars: My Predictions

The Academy Awards have been a big deal to me for years. I throw a party replete with tons of booze and food and those Oscar pools we hear so much about. This has little to do with the nominees, which I think rarely do a good job of reflecting what actually deserves to win. Instead, it’s that the Oscars are like the Super Bowl for cinephiles, a Sunday-set event that one can throw a party to and revel in love of the medium.

These are my Oscar predictions for Sunday’s ceremony. I don’t cover all the categories, because it would be disingenuous of me to predict the winner of Best Animated Short Film.

Best Picture:

The early thunder of “The Social Network,” which took most of the earlier award shows by storm, has given way to a resurgence by “The King’s Speech,” now considered the front-runner. Both excellent films, remarkably differing in style and tone: one a tried-and-true drama about British royalty, the other a slick exploration of the contemporary price of genius and success. Although “The Social Network” is easily the better film and certainly the one that will be re-watched endlessly over the years, “The King’s Speech” shows all the signs of claiming the prize. Still, an upset is possible, but not by any of the other eight nominees, none of which stand a snowball’s chance in hell.

Prediction: “The King’s Speech”

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Best Director:

It’s certainly true that Best Picture does not equal Best Director, and Academy voters know this better than anyone. Though “The King’s Speech” was finely directed by Tom Hooper, Academy voters are likely to respect and recognize David Fincher’s phenomenal work on “The Social Network,” which make what could be a boring drama about computer geeks into a thrilling morality play.

Prediction: David Fincher, “The Social Network”

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Best Actor:

The lock of the night: Colin Firth, for his portrayal of a humiliated and reluctant king struggling mightily to overcome a crippling stutter. Firth, a highly-respected veteran of the awards scene, ensures that this will be perhaps the only suspense free category of the night, Best Animated Feature Film notwithstanding. In other years, I’d say that James Franco’s turn as an imperiled hiker in “127 Hours” and Jeff Bridges’ crusty Rooster Cogburn in “True Grit” would be serious contenders, but this year, Firth will be crowned king.

Prediction: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”

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Best Actress:

Natalie Portman’s psychotic ballerina from “Black Swan” hits a veritable Oscar checklist: physical labor, precarious mental condition, film with a sterling pedigree. That said, some have predicted an Annette Bening upset for her matriarchal lesbian physician in “The Kids Are All Right.” I don’t see it; just as Portman’s role hits a lot of the notes Oscar voters like, Bening’s is subdued, and not even written or played in a way that consistently reminds viewers of the alternative-lifestyle vibe that the film is sold on.

Prediction: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”

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Best Supporting Actor:

Here’s one of the night’s closest races. Geoffrey Rush is pitch-perfect as the king’s speech therapist, a balance of confidence and humility, working with the world’s highest profile speech therapy client, caught between the British regard for class and his need to teach the proper way. On the other side of the coin is Christian Bale, giving a raw, edgy turn as a crack-addicted ex-boxer in “The Fighter.” Whereas Rush demonstrates uncanny measure, Bale feels spontaneous, looking well-lived in with his gaunt frame and twitch mannerisms. It’s incredible that a handsome, dashing actor readily recognizable as Batman can disappear so completely, never reminding us who we’re looking at. It’s a close call, but Rush already has a statue, and it’s looking to be Bale’s turn.

Prediction: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”

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Best Supporting Actress:

Melissa Leo, a splendid character actress with a wide range of tricks, seemed to be the lock. But two factors are working against her. The first is that her “The Fighter” costar Amy Adams shares a nomination, which threatens to siphon off votes from voters determined to honor “The Fighter” by awarding it a supporting win. The second is the public relations beating she took after some self-financed “For Your Consideration” ads opened her up to a fair amount of scorn and ridicule from her peers. There’s a reasonable chance for an upset in the form of Hailee Steinfeld, the 14-year-old actress who gave the best performance in a film with the unimpeachable Jeff Bridges giving it his all. That said, Leo’s still the horse to place your bets on.

Prediction: Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”

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Best Writing – Original Screenplay

Since “The King’s Speech” writer David Seidler certainly consulted a number of texts when writing his script, should this even count as “original”? A contest between “The King’s Speech” and “The Social Network” is likely more interesting on a writing level than a picture one, but never mind. The front runner for Best Picture should have no trouble picking up the writing prize, beating out the vastly more original “Inception,” among others.

Prediction: David Seidler, “The King’s Speech”

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Best Writing – Adapted Screenplay

Readers of BH might be aware that my opinion of Aaron Sorkin the man, the one who proudly admits to getting a cruel kick out of hunting accidents, isn’t particularly high. That said, one needs to grade the work before the artist, and his script for “The Social Network” is a shining example of how to turn material with a high potential for dullness into great drama. Sorkin’s apparent liberties with objective facts don’t seemed to have fazed any voters, not much of a surprise considering that it’s an industry that specializes in warping reality for any number of purposes.

Prediction: Aaron Sorkin, “The Social Network”

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Best Cinematography

Word on the street is that Roger Deakins, the brilliant lensman best known for shooting Coen Brothers’ films, will find that ninth time’s the charm for his lovely, haunting work on “True Grit.” But were I an Academy member, I might prefer Wally Pfister’s work on “Inception,” which accomplished the Herculean task of making the brilliant Christopher Nolan’s dreamy vision into something tangible.

Prediction: Roger Deakins, “True Grit”

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Best Animated Feature Film:

You know how I said that Best Actor was the only suspense free category of the night, Best Animated Feature notwithstanding? Here, “Toy Story 3” is the sole picture of the three nominees to also receive a Best Picture nomination. The math does itself.

Prediction: “Toy Story 3”

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And here, just for kicks, are my predictions for most other categories, short a few I can’t legitimate knowledge of.

Best Film Editing:

Prediction:”The Social Network”

Best Visual Effects:

Prediction: “Inception”

Best Art Direction:

Prediction: “Alice in Wonderland”

Best Original Score:

Prediction: “The Social Network”

Best Original Song:

Prediction: Randy Newman, “Toy Story 3”

Best Sound Editing:

Prediction: “Inception”

Best Sound Mixing:

Prediction: “Inception”

Best Makeup:

Prediction: “The Wolfman”

Best Costume Design:

Prediction: “Alice in Wonderland”

Best Documentary – Feature

Prediction: “Inside Job”

Best Foreign Language Film

Prediction: “Biutiful”