It’s that time of the year again — Oscar time! (Cue “Hooray It’s Hollywood!” music.) I know it’s supposed to be uncool to care, but I grew up watching the Oscars with my mom every year, and just can’t kick the habit.
Like some grim tribal ritual whose original meaning is lost in the mists of time, I will most probably sit down in front of the tube at the appointed hour, and brace myself for the onslaught of awkward acceptance speeches, corny jokes, and interminable dance numbers (please, God, no dance numbers!).
The experts agree there are two main contenders for Best Picture. (What would we do without experts?) One is a movie about a peaceful, idyllic land invaded by an evil military force trying to steal their resources. The other one is called Avatar.
The struggle between Avatar and The Hurt Locker has gone back and forth. Avatar was an early favorite, but Hurt Locker seems to have enjoyed a late General Petraeus-like surge.
Then in the final days, an ugly controversy struck Hurt Locker as one of its producers had the gall to ask people to vote for his movie. Imagine that! Doesn’t he know that Hollywood is a respectable place where aggressive self-promotion and crass commercialism are strictly off-limits?
Incidentally, have you noticed there are virtually no children in the world of Avatar? It’s kind of like Beverly Hills. Apparently there is a unique species on Pandora that takes care of the Na’vi children so the adults can spend all their time riding air-dragons and chasing blue tail. This child-caring species is known as the Nan’ni.
Picking Oscar winners is one way to make the ceremonies tolerable. (Another is drinking heavily.) Not to brag or anything, but I almost always win my Oscar party pools. For some inexplicable reason, I don’t get invited to Oscar parties anymore.
Since nobody else here at Big Hollywood has taken up the baton, to me is left the thankless task of making Oscar predictions. Adopt them at your own risk. (My lawyer made me add that.)
Best Picture
Probable winner: toss-up between Avatar and The Hurt Locker
Should win: toss-up between Up and Inglourious Basterds [sic]
Notes: This year ten films are nominated for Best Picture, and a new European-style runoff voting system is being implemented. Some say Inglourious Basterds is a dark-horse contender (gloury hallelujah). But it’s anybody’s guess which will win. If I had to choose, I’d say Hurt Locker is a lock. Or Avatar.
Best Director
Probable winner: Kathryn Bigelow
Should win: Quentin Tarantino
Notes: Tarantino is the most consistently compelling director working today. His films are must-sees by any cinephile. But Bigelow will be rewarded for making the first Iraq War movie whose total box office exceeded the sticker price of a Buick.
Best Actress
Probable winner: Sandra Bullock
Should win: Sandra Bullock
Notes: If Bullock doesn’t win, the entire Bible Belt will unfasten itself and horsewhip Hollywood. It might be worth it just to see Ari Emanuel try to hug it out with Baltimore Ravens tackle Michael Oher.
Best Actor
Probable winner: Jeff Bridges
Should win: Jeff Bridges
Notes: Long overdue. One word (plus a definite article): “The Dude.”
Best Supporting Actress
Probable winner: Mo’Nique
Should win: See above
Notes: Having a name punctuated like the Na’vi doesn’t hurt.
Best Supporting Actor
Probable winner: Christoph Waltz
Should win: See above
Notes: Christopher Plummer is a sentimental dark-horse candidate. Can you believe it’s Plummer’s first-ever nomination? Unfortunately for him, the winner will have one less syllable in his first name.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Probable winner: Up in the Air
Should win: In the Loop
Notes: In the Loop is the best comedy of 2009, a political (and really NSFW) movie that even a right-winger could love. It deserves its very own post on BH. Maybe I’ll do one later, if the clamor is loud enough.
Best Original Screenplay
Probable winner: toss-up between The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds (probably Hurt Locker; I just can’t bring myself to acknowledge that)
Should win: toss-up between Inglourious Basterds and Up
Notes: Many moons ago, I was the first person (other than Quentin) to clap eyes on Tarantino’s script for Pulp Fiction. He wouldn’t let me read it, but I saw the storied stack of paper on his coffee table. Buy me a beer and I’ll tell you the whole story.
Best Animated Feature
Probable winner: Up
Should win: See above
Notes: I haven’t seen The Book of Kells, which hasn’t been released in the U.S. yet. It looks amazing, however.
Best Cinematography
Probable winner: The Hurt Locker
Should win: Inglourious Basterds
Notes: Are we sick of the faux-documentary style yet?
Best Editing
Probable winner: The Hurt Locker
Should win: District 9
Notes: I’d pick Inglourious Basterds here, but it should have been shortened by about 15 minutes (like virtually every Tarantino film since Pulp Fiction).
Best Art Direction
Probable winner: Avatar
Should win: Avatar
Notes: Some would say the eye candy was the only good thing about Avatar. Some would be right.
Best Original Score
Probable winner: Up
Should win: Up
Notes: Up‘s composer, Michael Giacchino, also scores Lost. That’s enough for him to win my vote, right there. (Even though the temple thing is really bugging me this season — but that isn’t his fault.)
Best Foreign Language Film
Probable winner: The White Ribbon
Should win: I don’t know, didn’t see enough of them to say. (Whew, that felt good to get off my chest!)
Notes: The White Ribbon is in black and white. It should be a lock.
Best Documentary Feature
Probable winner: Since I’ve got a documentary coming out this year, I’m going to steer well clear of this one. (Psst, The Cove will win.)
For those of you wagering on the outcomes, here are my predictions for the rest of the categories. Just so you know which ones to avoid.
Costumes: The Young Victoria
Makeup: Star Trek
Visual Effects: Avatar
Sound Mixing: Avatar
Sound Editing: The Hurt Locker
Song: The Weary Kind (Crazy Heart)
Animated Short: A Matter of Loaf and Death
Documentary Short: The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
Live Action Short: The Door
So, who do you think will win?