Reading Election Night Tea Leaves and Wearing Lucky Neckties

Chris Christie was obviously wearing his; as was Robert McDonnell. The GOP is officially breathing again. It was a great day for Republicans Tuesday. It happened exactly one year after we took our worst shellacking since the 1960s. And, what did President Obama do while his party was getting whooped in two states which voted for him last year? The official statement from the White House is that he did not even bother to watch any of the results as “they just didn’t matter and didn’t reflect on him: They were locally driven.”

For the past year I have been saying the current President is one of the biggest megalomaniacs in history. And Tuesday night he proved it again. While the state of New Jersey, which is one of the bluest, was falling and the State of Virginia was being swept by Republicans (which has not happened since Reconstruction), the President refused to acknowledge any of it mattered. I wonder if he was wearing his lucky tie.

However, we all know who definitely was not: Doug Hoffman. This is the man who ran on the Conservative ticket in NY-23, a district in Upstate New York that has been Republican since the Civil War. Well, in the immortal words of Jacques Clouseau, “Not Anymore!” Doug Hoffman was defeated garnering only 46% of the vote. The projected winner, the Democrat Bill Owens, garnered 49% and the liberal Republican who withdrew last week received 5%. She proved to be the spoiler.

I find this race in NY-23 to be very disturbing. It is a race that garnered national attention when Sarah Palin, the Queen of the Far Right, decided to support the Conservative Candidate and not the Republican. Before that, the race was hardly being looked at. NY-23 is a district which borders on Canada and Vermont. It is more than 90% white and skews Republican by a margin of more than five percentage points. The area has been Republican for as far as anyone can remember. But, last night, it elected a Democrat. Why?

The Republican Party nominated Dede Scozzafava to run without a primary. Ms. Scozzafava is one of the most liberal Republicans in the history of the Party. She is not pro-life, supports same-sex marriage and has strong ties to Labor — positions which are opposed by the majority of the Party. She does support the Bush tax cuts and is against Cap-and-Trade. It was rumored during the election that she hinted she might caucus with the Democrats if elected.

Obviously the nomination of Ms. Scozzafava was a big mistake. By nominating her, the Party allowed a three way race to occur thereby guaranteeing a Democrat victory. Of course, it did not help, that upon quitting the race five days ago, Ms. Scozzafava gave her support, not to the Conservative Hoffman, but to the Democrat Owens. The Party should have run a primary before nominating Scozzafava or, at the least, seen the power of the conservative movement and nominated someone more in line with the mainstream Republican platform.

But, that is not really what disturbs me about the race in NY-23. What disturbs me is the ramification of what happened there to the rest of the country and to the 2010 election The Republican Party seems to be splintering into two halves, the conservatives and the moderates. The Conservatives are being supported by Ms. Palin and a large group of right-wing pundits. They are represented by the Tea Party organizations and the States’ Rights Groups. I am probably one of them.

However, without the moderates; the center of the political spectrum, the Party will not regain control of the Federal Government. There is simply not enough on the Far Right to support a majority anywhere in the country. The moderates and independents win elections. And, boy was that clear last night.

All of the exit polling shows that McDonnell and Christie won because there was a major swing in the independent voter to the Republicans. These swing voters stated they were against huge government spending, the failed stimulus package and were in fear for the future of their children. The majority of these independents voted for Obama in the last election.

We need them, these independents. We must do whatever is necessary to maintain their support. We cannot swing to the far right and expect to do anything in 2010. If we do, there will be a lot of Democrats wearing their lucky ties. If we continue to attract the moderates and independents as happened Tuesday, it will be a large group of Republicans wearing theirs.