Afghanistan: Obama's Setup and Payoff

Skillfully written screenplays are frequently structured around a series of setups and payoffs.

The most rudimentary example is, of course, the pistol in the desk drawer: revealed in Act I, and then in Act II, the gun is used to kill someone.

For an intensive workshop in cinematic setups and payoffs you should screen the Back to the Future series, where setup and payoff are elevated to an entirely new level.

It’s kind of fascinating, watching Obama construct the setup for his Afghanistan policy. He follows a familiar dramatic structure:

1. Anguished self-reflection, all quite public in order to display nobility of character.

2. Striking out at supporting players–Generals Petraeus and McChrystal–for their disloyal behavior.

3. Floating ideas through the court jester, Joe Biden, regarding an alternate–i.e. losing–policy in Afghanistan. The fool is allowed to speak the truth in order to maintain plausible deniability, but actually designed to prepare the great unwashed for a series of radical policy shifts.

It’s all very Will Shakespeare.

But of course this is all a set-up for Obama to do nothing for as long as possible, which is, by the way, doing quite a bit. Inaction on the part of America and her allies benefits the Muslim terrorists by giving them time to recruit, raise funds, regroup, train, and conquer more real estate.

Obama’s next move will be to deploy a few extra troops to Afghanistan, just enough to claim that he’s in the fight, but not enough to shatter his liberal base.

However, as the body count rises and the tactical and strategic situation in Afghanistan deteriorates, Obama will, in slow motion, bring the troops home, thereby surrendering to radical Islam. And, according to the Democrats, rescuing us from a Vietnam like quagmire.

The blowback will be massive.

1. The Islamists will–rightly–declare victory over the Crusader infidels.

2. Radical Islam will point to a failure of Western resolve in the face of imperial Islam. The propaganda value of this claim cannot be overstated.

3. The Taliban will swallow the entire country and a reign of Islamic terror will spread like the Black Plague.

4. Rapidly, Afghanistan will devolve into a terrorist and drug cartel state, sending out death squads to Europe, North Africa and America.

5. Emboldened, the Taliban will set their sights on neighboring Pakistan, a failed nuclear state ripe for picking. India will be compelled to act or face a nuclear Taliban–dirty suitcase bombs will proliferate–and their non-state Islamist allies, including Iranian proxies. Hamas and Hizbullah.

6. America’s allies will view Obama’s America as an unreliable ally and draw away from America’s orbit.

7. Obama’s fetish for sitting down, in community organizer mode, and yapping away with totalitarian regimes signals massive naivete and weakness. Hence, the Taliban, Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela will stomp all over this administration like a rug. The number one rule of geo-politics is: weakness invites aggression.

Ladies and gentlemen, fasten your seat belts, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.

Copyright Robert J. Avrech