Wrestler-turned-movie star Dwayne Johnson leads RACE TO WITCH MOUNTAIN to a $24.25M opening, while WATCHMEN plummets 71%!

As Watchmen (Warner Bros) falls, “The Rock” appears to be racing to a weekend win. Disney’s Race To Witch Mountain, starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, is off to a solid start with $6.8M or so on opening day, and, with its expected surge in family matinee audiences on Saturday and Sunday, it will likely triumph with a possible $24.25M.

Meanwhile last weekend’s winner Watchmen staggered to a second Friday of only $5.4M or so, and I am projecting only $15.75M for the 3-day. That marks a 71% drop. Anything over $20M would have been acceptable, but the bottom has fallen out of this movie, and it will now struggle to reach $100M domestic. When the foreign and DVD are added, it may make a small profit, but it will likely be negligible. The superstitious might suggest that Watchmen writer Alan Moore’s alleged curse may be to blame, but the reality is that word-of-mouth has been more negative than for any movie in recent memory.

For Johnson, Race To Witch Mountain marks his all-time #3 opening and his second-best as a lead (trailing The Scorpion King).

ALL-TIME TOP 5 DWAYNE JOHNSON OPENINGS

– not counting his cameo in The Mummy Returns –

1. Get Smart – $38.6M opening

2. The Scorpion King – $36M opening

3. Race To Witch Mountain – $24.25M opening (projected)

4. Be Cool – $23.4M opening

5. The Game Plan – $22.95M opening

The movie industry has a great tradition when it comes to professional wrestlers in feature films. Lenny Montana played the small but pivotal role of Luca Brasi in Francis Ford Coppola’s 1972 Best Picture winner The Godfather and Andre the Giant had a memorable turn in the classic The Princess Bride in 1987, but Johnson is easily the most bankable wrestler-turned-actor of all time.

ALL-TIME TOP 30 GROSSING MOVIES THAT FEATURE A PRO WRESTLER

– ranked by total domestic box office –

1. The Mummy Returns – Dwayne Johnson – $68.1M opening – $202M cume

2. The Longest Yard – Steve Austin, Goldberg, Kevin Nash, The Great Khali – $47.6M opening – $158.1M cume

3. X-Men – Tyler Mayne – $54.4M opening – $157.3M cume

4. The Godfather – Lenny Montana – $300K opening – $135M cume

5. Troy – Tyler Mayne – $46.8M opening – $133.4M cume

6. Get Smart – $38.6M opening – Dwayne Johnson – $130.3M cume

7. Rocky III – Hulk Hogan – $12.4M opening – $125M cume

8. The Scorpion King – Dwayne Johnson – $36M opening – $91M cume

9. The Game Plan – $22.95M opening – Dwayne Johnson – $90.6M cume

10. Predator – Jesse Ventura – $12M opening – $59.7M cume

11. Halloween (2007) – Tyler Mayne – $26.3M opening – $58.2M cume

12. Be Cool – $23.4M – Dwayne Johnson – opening – $56M cume

13. Blade: Trinity – Triple H – $16M opening – $52.4M cume

14. The Rundown – Dwayne Johnson – $18.5M opening – $47.7M cume

15. Walking Tall – Dwayne Johnson – $15.5M opening – $46.4M cume

16. Gridiron Gang – Dwayne Johnson – $14.4M opening – $38.4M cume

17. The Running Man – Jesse Ventura – $8.1M opening – $38.1M cume

18. The Punisher – Kevin Nash – $13.8M opening – $33.8M cume

19. The Princess Bride – Andre the Giant – $4.4M opening – $30.8M cume

20. Doom – Dwayne Johnson – $35.5M opening – $28.2M cume

21. Spy Hard – Hulk Hogan – $10.4M opening – $27M cume

22. Grindhouse – Vladimir Kozlov – $11.6M opening – $25M cume

23. The Marine – John Cena – $7.1M opening – $18.8M cume

24. No Holds Barred – Hulk Hogan – $5M opening – $16.1M cume

25. Over the Top – Terry Funk – $5.1M opening – $16M cume

26. See No Evil – Kane – $4.5M opening – $15M cume

27. The Comebacks – Stacey Keibler – $5.5M opening – $13.4M cume

28. They Live – Roddy Piper – $4.8M opening – $13M cume

29. The Condemned – Steve Austin – $3.8M opening – $7.3M cume

30. Ed Wood – George Steele – $1.9M opening – $5.9M cume

If Witch Mountain plays out like The Rock’s last family movie The Game Plan, the picture could reach $95M in the US.

Wes Craven’s The Last House On the Left (Universal), a remake of his own 1972 seminal classic, has met industry expectations with an opening day of $5.3M or so (actually ahead of Watchmen). The tightly-budgeted, R-rated genre pic will wrap up the weekend at #3 with a likely $14.3M or so.

Luc Besson’s mega-hit Taken (Fox) is headed for a dip of only 17% for an impressive $6.5M, good for fourth-place and a new cume of $126.68M. Tyler Perry’s biggest hit ever, Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate), will round out the weekend top five with about $5M pushing its domestic gross to $83M.

The other wide release is Miss March (Fox Searchlight), which had straight-to-video written all over it. The movie managed only $750K from 1,742 playdates Friday, and it will crawl to a meager $2M 3-day, barely cracking the weekend top ten.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES

1. NEW – Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $6.8M, $2,134 PTA, $6.8M cume

2. NEW – The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $5.5.M, $2,291 PTA, $5.5M cume

3. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $5.4M, $1,495 PTA, $73.33M cume

4. Taken (Fox) – $2M, $700 PTA, $122.18M cume

5. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $1.45M, $658 PTA, $79.52M cume

6. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $1.4M, $543 PTA, $129M cume

7. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $900,000, $476 PTA, $87M cume

8. NEW – Miss March (Fox Searchlight) – $890,000, $511 PTA, $890,000 cume

9. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $860,000, $377 PTA, $135.52M cume

10. Coraline (Focus) – $600,000, $339 PTA, $67.12M cume

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES

1. NEW – Race to Witch Mountain (Disney) – $24.25M, $7,609 PTA, $24.25M cume

2. Watchmen (Warner Bros) – $15.75M, $4,362 PTA, $83.68M cume

3. NEW – The Last House on the Left (Universal) – $14.3M, $5,956 PTA, $14.3M cume

4. Taken (Fox) – $6.5M, $2,274 PTA, $126.68M cume

5. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) – $5M, $2,271 PTA, $83.08M cume

6. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) – $4.83M, $1,874 PTA, $132.43M cume

7. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) – $3.18M, $1,395PTA, $137.84M cume

8. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) – $2.88M, $1,524 PTA, $89M cume

9. Coraline (Focus) – $2.5M, $1,408 PTA, $69M cume

10. NEW – Miss March (Fox Searchlight) – $2.4M, $1,379 PTA, $2.4M cume

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.