Final Oscar Predix: SLUMDOG, Rourke, Streep, Ledger, Cruz; BEN BUTTON could win just 2 of 13!

I am forecasting a coronation for Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) at Sunday’s Academy Awards. My final predictions call for Slumdog wins in 8 of the 9 categories it is competing in including Best Picture and Best Director: Danny Boyle. The only place I think it will fail is in the Sound Mixing category where The Dark Knight (Warner Bros) may trump it.

The “Battle Royale” of the night is Mickey Rouke from The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight) vs. Sean Penn in Milk (Focus) in the Best Actor category. There have been two ties in major categories in Academy Award history. The first was in 1932 when Frederic March in Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde shared Best Actor with Wallace Beery for The Champ. (March had one more vote, but in that era, any finish within 3 votes was rules a tie.) Then in 1968, Katherine Hepburn for The Lion In Winter and Barbara Streisand for Funny Girl tied for Best Actress. If there was any justice, Rourke and Penn would share the award. In any other year, either of them would be a lock. Forced to make a pick, I’m going with Rourke.

Kate Winslet is on the cover of Time Magazine, and she has picked up a wheelbarrow full of hardware during this awards cycle, but a fair number of voters got their fill of Kate when she pulled off the double-win at the Golden Globes. My upset special is Meryl Streep for Doubt (Miramax). This is her 15th career nomination, and she has not won an Academy Award in 25 years (Sophie’s Choice in 1982). That is too long for the most-revered actress in history to go without getting one of those golden guys. Streep won the SAG Award for Lead Actress, and I think she has a real shot here. (It would be a huge upset.)

Finally if my predix hold up, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount) would win only 2 Oscars – Best Visual Effects and Best Makeup – despite 13 nominations. That would be the fewest wins for any movie with 13 or more nominations. In fact, 2 wins would be among the poorest showings ever for a movie with 11 nominations or more.

FEWEST OSCAR WINS FOR MOVIES WITH 11 NOMINATIONS OR MORE

1. The Color Purple – 0 wins (11 nominations)

2. The Turning Point – 0 wins (11 nominations)

3. Chinatown – 1 win (11 nominations)

4. Johnny Belinda – 1 win (12 nominations)

5. Becket – 1 win (12 nominations)

6. Mr. Smith Goes to Washington – 1 win (11 nominations)

7. Pride of the Yankees – 1 win (11 nominations)

8. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 2 wins (13 nominations) – predicted

9. Rebecca – 2 wins (11 nominations)

10. Sergeant York – 2 wins (11 nominations)

11. A Passage To India – 2 wins (11 nominations)

12. Judgement at Nuremberg – 2 wins (11 nominations)

After weeks of obsessive study, relentless debate and intense soul-searching, here are my final Oscar predictions for all 24 categories.

BEST PICTURE

My Pick – Slumdog Millionaire

Consensus Pick – Slumdog Millionaire

Dark Horse – Milk

BEST ACTOR

My Pick – Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Consensus Pick – Sean Penn, Milk or Rourke

Dark Horse – None

BEST ACTRESS

My Pick – Meryl Streep, Doubt

Consensus Pick – Kate Winslet, The Reader

Dark Horse – Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

My Pick – Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Consensus Pick – Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Dark Horse – None

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

My Pick – Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Consensus Pick – Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Dark Horse – Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

BEST DIRECTOR

My Pick – Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

Consensus Pick – Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

Dark Horse – David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

My Pick – Dustin Lance Black, Milk

Consensus Pick – Andrew Stanton, WALL-E

Dark Horse – Martin McDonagh, In Bruges

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

My Pick – Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire

Consensus Pick – Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire

Dark Horse – David Hare, The Reader

BEST EDITING

My Pick – Slumdog Millionaire

Consensus Pick – Slumdog Millionaire

Dark Horse – Frost/Nixon

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

My Pick – Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire

Consensus Pick – Anthony Dod Mantle, Slumdog Millionaire

Dark Horse – Wally Pfister, The Dark Knight

BEST ART DIRECTION

My Pick – The Dark Knight

Consensus Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Dark Horse – The Duchess

BEST SOUND MIXING

My Pick – The Dark Knight

Consensus Pick – The Dark Knight

Dark Horse – Slumdog Millionaire

BEST SOUND EDITING

My Pick – Slumdog Millionaire

Consensus Pick – Slumdog Millionaire

Dark Horse – The Dark Knight

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

My Pick – The Duchess

Consensus Pick – The Duchess

Dark Horse – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

My Pick – A.R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire

Consensus Pick – A. R. Rahman, Slumdog Millionaire

Dark Horse – Alexandre Desplat, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

My Pick – Waltz with Bashir

Consensus Pick – Waltz with Bashir

Dark Horse – The Class

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

My Pick – Man on Wire

Consensus Pick – Man On Wire

Dark Horse – Trouble the Water

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

My Pick – WALL-E

Consensus Pick – WALL-E

Dark Horse – Kung Fu Panda

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

My Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Consensus Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Dark Horse – The Dark Knight

BEST MAKEUP

My Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Consensus Pick – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Dark Horse – The Dark Knight

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

My Pick – Jaiho from Slumdog Millionaire

Consensus Pick – Jaiho from Slumdog Millionaire

Dark Horse – Peter Gabriel, Down to Earth from WALL-E

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

My Pick – Toyland (Spielzeugland)

Consensus Pick – Auf der Strecke

Dark Horse – The Pig

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

My Pick – Presto

Consensus Pick – La Maison en Petits Cubes

Dark Horse – This Way Up

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

My Pick – The Conscience of Nhem En

Consensus Pick – The Witness

Dark Horse – The Final Inch

Steve Mason is on Facebook and now also on Twitter.