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Last January, Hollywood was in the midst of the disastrous WGA strike forcing the cancellation of the Golden Globe Awards ceremony. It was painful to watch Access Hollywood‘s Billy Bush and Nancy O’Dell announce the winners and attempt to provide insightful commentary about films and performances that they likely did not see. The whole thing came off as a promo for Access, and it was a disaster for the industry.
The Globes are not necessarily a perfect barometer for artistic success. Ninety-five or so “journalists” representing off-brand and/or inconspicuous publications from approximately forty-eight countries get to vote, and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is prone to impropriety.
Back in 1981, producer Meshulam Riklis took HFPA members on an all-expenses-paid junket to Las Vegas, just a few weeks before his wife Pia Zadora won the Golden Globe for New Female Star of the Year for her work in the ridiculous film Butterfly. In 1999, Sharon Stone was “busted” for sending Coach brand watches ($300-$400) to each member of the organization as a way to say, “Don’t forget my hilarious performance in The Muse.” (She was nominated for Best Actress – Comedy or Musical, but the HFPA President, in an apparent bout of conscience made all of his members return the fancy gift.)
These days HFPA members sign a waiver that prohibits them from receiving gifts, but those studios, producers and actors who “play the game” are often rewarded with nominations and hardware. Cocktails with Clooney anyone? How about lunch with Langella or Bellinis with Bardem? And beware of Harvey Weinstein. One “film insider” told the Hollywood Reporter that “Harvey understands the HFPA demographic better than anyone.”
In fact, the Weinsteins landed surprise Best Picture nominations the last two years – Bobby and The Great Debaters – although neither picture earned Best Picture nominations at the Oscars. This year Harvey has engineered 8 Golden Globe nominations between Stephen Daldry’s The Reader and Vicky Cristina Barcelona from director Woody Allen. Golden Globe nominations aren’t necessarily the most reliable precursor for the Academy Awards, but nominations definitely can be used to generate box office over the holidays, especially for serious movies that need more of a profile to sell tickets.
All that being said, the Oscar winners for Best Actor and Best Actress for the past five years each won the Golden Globe in that awards cycle. Things are a bit less predictive when it comes to the Academy Award for Best Picture. In the last four years, the Oscar winning movie failed to win either of the HFPA Best Picture prizes.
2008
Golden Globes – Best Picture – Drama: Atonement
Golden Globes – Best Picture – Comedy or Musical: Sweeney Todd
Academy Awards – Best Picture: No Country For Old Men
2007
Golden Globes – Best Picture – Drama: Babel
Golden Globes – Best Picture – Comedy or Musical: Dreamgirls
Academy Awards – Best Picture: The Departed
2006
Golden Globes – Best Picture – Drama: Brokeback Mountain
Golden Globes – Best Picture – Comedy or Musical: Walk the Line
Academy Awards – Best Picture: Crash
2005
Golden Globes – Best Picture – Drama: The Aviator
Golden Globes – Best Picture – Comedy or Musical: Sideways
Academy Awards – Best Picture: Million Dollar Baby
In 2006, the HFPA failed to even nominate the ultimate Oscar Best Picture winner Crash in its drama category. Prior to its four-year losing streak with Best Picture, the organization had recognized ten of the previous eleven Academy Award winners with the Globe for either Best Drama or Best Comedy or Musical, so sometimes this cliquish group gets it right.
The Golden Globes are a bit silly, but they do influence Oscar voters to some degree. They also raise the profile of movies and television programs by giving the a national stage on network television on a Sunday night every January. People do watch. Just being nominated coaxes more people to venture to their local multiplex and see something they otherwise might not have considered. When those names get called on NBC on Sunday, a percentage of viewers will sample a television program for the first time.
Keeping in mind the foibles of the HFPA, I am taking a shot at guessing the winner in every category. Despite my prognostication pedigree, I will not get all of these right. In fact, you could very well do better in your office pool than I do here. I feel a bit more certain in the movie categories than with the more unpredictable (almost arbitrary) television categories. I subscribe to what the Oscar winning screenwriter William Goldman once said about show business, “Nobody knows anything.”
BEST PICTURE – DRAMA
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
THE WINNER:Slumdog Millionaire
ANALYSIS: I believe that the HFPA will recognize the movie that they think will win Best Picture at the Oscars. They don’t want to be wrong 5 years in a row. The Academy Awards betting favorite is Slumdog Millionaire. The international flavor of Danny Boyle’s Slumdog probably puts it over the top, but don’t completely rule out a Benjamin Button win.
BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA
Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie – Changeling
Meryl Streep – Doubt
Kristin Scott Thomas – I’ve Loved You So Long
Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road
THE WINNER: Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road
ANALYSIS: She has six Golden Globe nominations without a win, and she packs a double punch here, also getting credit for her supporting work in The Reader. Hathaway is the dark horse.
BEST ACTOR – DRAMA
Leonardo DiCaprio – Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn – Milk
Brad Pitt – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke –The Wrestler
THE WINNER: Mickey Rourke –The Wrestler
ANALYSIS: Penn has never been one to “cozy up” to the HFPA. Langella is amazing, but appropriately restrained. That leaves one-time critical darling Rourke in the ultimate comeback story.
BEST PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Burn After Reading
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Mamma Mia
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
THE WINNER:Vicky Cristina Barcelona
ANALYSIS: I am less sure about this category than any of the night. My guess is that Mamma Mia is too garish (even of the HFPA) and that In Bruges may be too obscure. Mike Leigh’s Happy-Go-Lucky doesn’t feel like a Best Picture to me. The Coen Brothers failed to win Best Picture – Drama last year for No Country For Old Men, so maybe they get a make-good here. But, I am casting my lot with Woody Allen’s Vicky Cristina Barcelona. Harvey working his magic and good across-the-board strength here with three acting noms.
BEST ACTRESS – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Rebecca Hall – Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Sally Hawkins – Happy-Go-Lucky
Frances McDormand – Burn After Reading
Meryl Streep – Mamma Mia
Emma Thompson – Last Chance Harvey
THE WINNER: Sally Hawkins – Happy-Go-Lucky
ANALYSIS: The most original performance of the year belongs to British actress Sally Hawkins. Hall and McDormand don’t feel like lead roles while Streep and Thompson are in lightweight projects.
BEST ACTOR – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Javier Bardem –Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Colin Farrell – In Bruges
James Franco – Pineapple Express
Brendan Gleeson – In Bruges
Dustin Hoffman – Last Chance Harvey
THE WINNER: James Franco – Pineapple Express
ANALYSIS: Franco won the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Mini-Series or TV Movie for his work in the title role of James Dean. This kids has had a great year with some excellent work in Milk. Plus, who would have ever thought that the deadly serious Franco had this hilarious, stoner character in him? Bardem won for Best Supporting last year for No Country and Hoffman already has more hardware than Home Depot.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams – Doubt
Penelope Cruz –Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis – Doubt
Marisa Tomei –The Wrestler
Kate Winslet – The Reader
THE WINNER: Penelope Cruz –Vicky Cristina Barcelona
ANALYSIS: A slam dunk. She’s an international superstar in the best year of her career. Woody Allen has a knack for writing supporting roles for women (just ask Dianne Weist with two Oscars on her mantle).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tom Cruz –Tropic Thunder
Robert Downey Jr. – Tropic Thunder
Ralph Fiennes –The Duchess
Phillip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt
Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight
THE WINNER: Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight
ANALYSIS: Tom Cruise is a joke of a nomination especially when The Joker is in the mix. I cannot imagine any way that Heath Ledger will not win here.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E
THE WINNER: Wall-E
ANALYSIS: Easily the best animated picture of the group, and maybe one of the best animated films ever made.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany)
Everlasting Moments (Sweden, Denmark)
Gomorrah (Italy)
I’ve Loved You So Long (France)
Waltz With Bashir (Israel)
THE WINNER: Waltz With Bashir
ANALYSIS: It’s the winner of six Israel Film Academy Awards (Israeli Oscars), and it will get the nod over the Italian mafia yarn Gomorrah and I’ve Loved You So Long, featuring Kristin Scott Thomas.
BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry – The Reader
David Fincher – The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard – Frost/Nixon
Sam Mendes – Revolutionary Road
THE WINNER: Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire
ANALYSIS: Either Boyle or Fincher, and my bet is on the British-born auteur who made a movie in a completely original film language.
BEST SCREENPLAY
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button by Eric Roth
Doubt by John Patrick Shanley
Frost/Nixon by Peter Morgan
The Reader by David Hare
Slumdog Millionaire by Simon Beaufoy
THE WINNER: Slumdog Millionaire by Simon Beaufoy
ANALYSIS: Cannot count out Peter Morgan who won the Golden Globe for The Queen or Oscar winner John Patrick Shanley (Moonstruck) who adapted from his own play, but I am picking Beaufoy. This is a comeback story for this Brit screenwriter. His last work of any consequence was The Full Monty in 1997, and now he is back with a perfect adaptation of Indian novelist Vikas Swarup’s Q&A.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button by Alexandre Desplat
Changeling by Clint Eastwood
Defiance by James Newton Howard
Slumdog Millionaire by A. R. Rahman
Frost/Nixon by Hans Zimmer
THE WINNER:Slumdog Millionaire by A. R. Rahman
ANALYSIS: The HFPA loves Alexandre Desplat as a four-time nominee and a winner for 2006’s The Painted Veil, but this seems to be Rahman’s year. His Bollywood-meets-world music work is unlike anything ever heard by American audiences, and his huge following from India to Singapore to Malaysia to the UK puts him in position for the win.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Down To Earth” – Wall-E by Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman
“Gran Torino” – Gran Torino by Clint Eastwood, Jamie Cullum, Kyle Eastwood and Michael Stevens
“I Thought I Lost You” – Bolt by Miley Cyrus and Jeffrey Steele
“Once In A Lifetime” – Cadillac Records by Beyoncé Knowles, Amanda Ghost, Scott McFarmon, Ian Dench, James Dring and Jody Street
“The Wrestler” – The Wrestler by Bruce Springsteen
THE WINNER: “The Wrestler” – The Wrestler by Bruce Springsteen
ANALYSIS: Hard to beat Springsteen, but if it can be done, I’m guessing it would lose to Gran Torino, co-written by Clint Eastwood and jazz vocalist Jamie Cullum.
BEST TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
Dexter (SHOWTIME)
House (FOX)
In Treatment (HBO)
Mad Men (AMC)
True Blood (HBO)
THE WINNER: True Blood (HBO)
ANALYSIS: I tried watching Alan Ball’s vampire drama, and eventually gave up. Mad Men is the best show of the group, but it won last year, and the HFPA always seems intent on finding the next new thing. The foreign press aren’t known for shows repeating as winners.
BEST ACTRESS TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
Sally Field – Brothers & Sisters (ABC)
Mariska Hargitay – Law & Order (NBC)
January Jones – Mad Men (AMC)
Anna Paquin – True Blood (HBO)
Kyra Sedgwick – The Closer (TNT)
THE WINNER: January Jones – Mad Men (AMC)
ANALYSIS: Jones is pitch-perfect as the put-upon 60’s housewife, and the HFPA forgot about her last year. Hargitay and Sedgewick have won in this category before.
BEST ACTOR TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
Gabriel Byrne – In Treatment (HBO)
Michael C. Hall – Dexter (SHOWTIME)
Jon Hamm – Mad Men (AMC)
Hugh Laurie – House (FOX)
Jonathan Rhys Meyers – The Tudors (SHOWTIME)
THE WINNER: Jonathan Rhys Meyers – The Tudors (SHOWTIME)
ANALYSIS: Hamm won this prize last year. I’m guessing that Rhys Meyers, a winner for Best Lead Actor in a Mini-Series or TV Movie for his role as Elvis back in 2005, will get his turn making an acceptance speech. This is his second straight nomination for The Tudors.
BEST TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
30 Rock (NBC)
Californication (SHOWTIME)
Entourage (HBO)
The Office (NBC)
Weeds (SHOWTIME)
THE WINNER: 30 Rock (NBC)
ANALYSIS: 30 Rock has yet to win Best Comedy Series from the Golden Globes, and Tina Fey definitely raised the show’s profile in a big way. If it doesn’t go Fey’s way, Entourage could score here having never won in the category.
BEST ACTRESS TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Christina Applegate – Samantha Who? (ABC)
America Ferrera – Ugly Betty (ABC)
Tina Fey – 30 Rock (NBC)
Debra Messing – The Starter Wife (USA)
Mary-Louise Parker – Weeds (SHOWTIME)
THE WINNER: Tina Fey – 30 Rock (NBC)
ANALYSIS: Tina Fey won last year, and my gut says she wins again. She’s getting some extra credit for her Saturday Night Live work. Applegate has a compelling personal story, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her win here.
BEST ACTOR TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Alec Baldwin – 30 Rock (NBC)
Steve Carell – The Office (NBC)
Kevin Connolly – Entourage (HBO)
David Duchovny – Californication (SHOWTIME)
Tony Shalhoub – Monk (USA)
THE WINNER: Alec Baldwin – 30 Rock (NBC)
ANALYSIS: Baldwin, Carell, and Shaloub are former winners and Duchovny won last year. I say Connolly fails to break through (the HFPA doesn’t seem to “get” Entourage, except for Piven’s Ari character). It’s the year of 30 Rock.
BEST MINISERIES OR TELEVISION MOVIE
A Raisin In The Sun (ABC)
Bernard And Doris (HBO)
Cranford (PBS)
John Adams (HBO)
Recount (HBO)
THE WINNER: John Adams (HBO)
ANALYSIS: A rather lackluster group. Not a big fan of John Adams, but it’s probably the class of the field, especially with seven episodes to its credit.
BEST ACTRESS MINISERIES OR TELEVISION MOVIE
Judi Dench – Cranford (PBS)
Catherine Keener – An American Crime (SHOWTIME)
Laura Linney – John Adams (HBO)
Shirley MacLaine – Coco Chanel (LIFETIME)
Susan Sarandon – Bernard And Doris (HBO)
THE WINNER: Laura Linney – John Adams (HBO)
ANALYSIS: A great actress. A challenging role. A weighty seven-part mini-series.
BEST ACTOR MINISERIES OR TELEVISION MOVIE
Ralph Fiennes – Bernard And Doris (HBO)
Paul Giamatti – John Adams (HBO)
Kevin Spacey – Recount (HBO)
Kiefer Sutherland – 24 (FOX)
Tom Wilkinson – Recount (HBO)
THE WINNER: Paul Giamatti – John Adams (HBO)
ANALYSIS: The HFPA will make up for not giving him Best Actor – Musical or Comedy for Sideways.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS SERIES, MINISERIES OR TELEVISION MOVIE
Eileen Atkins – Cranford (PBS)
Laura Dern – Recount (HBO)
Melissa George – In Treatment (HBO)
Rachel Griffiths – Brothers & Sisters (ABC)
Dianne Wiest – In Treatment (HBO)
THE WINNER: Rachel Griffiths – Brothers & Sisters (ABC)
ANALYSIS: My hunch is that voters don’t choose Dern’s characature of Katherine Harris and opt for either Weist or Griffiths, who won before for Six Feet Under.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR SERIES, MINISERIES OR TELEVISION MOVIE
Neil Patrick Harris – How I Met Your Mother (CBS)
Denis Leary – Recount (HBO)
Jeremy Piven – Entourage (HBO)
Blair Underwood – In Treatment (HBO)
Tom Wilkinson – John Adams (HBO)
THE WINNER: Neil Patrick Harris – How I Met Your Mother (CBS)
ANALYSIS: They have to stop giving Piven awards. Wilkinson is excellent, but I’m taking a shot with Neil Patrick Harris for his over-the-top work on the somewhat underrated How I Met Your Mother. He should also get credit for playing himself in a second consecutive Harold & Kumar movie this year.