The Golden Globe nominees will be announced this Thursday, December 11 at 5am Pacific. Announcement day for the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is always the official start of the Academy Award season, and the stakes are very high for pictures and performances that need that Golden Globe shine to stay alive in the race for an Oscar.
I reserve the right to update these predictions in advance of nomination morning, but as of today (December 8), here’s my shot at picking the nominees along with some analysis.
BEST PICTURE – DRAMA
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount)
Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight)
Gran Torino (Warner Bros)
Milk (Focus)
The Dark Knight (Warner Bros)
ANALYSIS: Benjamin Button is the only true lock here, and Danny Boyle’s Slumdog Millionaire, especially with its international flavor, is a near lock. My sense is that both Gran Torino and Milk are surging. Warner Bros has just moved up the release date for what may be Clint Eastwood’s final star vehicle and Gus Van Sant’s biopic documenting the life of gay rights advocate Harvey Milk seems even more timely in the shadow of the passage of Prop 8 in California. I am a strong supporter of The Dark Knight, which has been an international box office sensation and, in my mind, is for Christopher Nolan what The Departed was for Martin Scorsese. Sam Mendes’ Revolutionary Road (Paramount), Frost/Nixon (Universal) and Doubt (Miramax) are also possibles (although they feel more like great acting pieces). If the nominations go this way, it’ll be the end of the Best Picture road for films like The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight), Eastwood’s other film Changeling (Universal) and the quixotic Baz Luhrmann epic Australia (Fox). The fact that both W. (Lionsgate) and Rachel Getting Married (Sony Classics) have been categorized as dramas by the HFPA virtually eliminates them from Best Picture contention. If you’re looking for a sleeper here, it may be The Reader (Weinstein). Bob and Harvey managed a Best Picture nomination for The Great Debaters last year, so they have worked their magic on the foreign press before.
BEST PICTURE – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Mamma Mia (Universal)
Sex and the City (Warner Bros)
Burn After Reading (Focus)
Tropic Thunder (Dreamworks/Paramount)
Synecdoche, New York (Sony Classics)
ANALYSIS: HFPA voters will find it impossible to ignore the Broadway-to-big screen adaptation of Mamma Mia and the HBO-to-big screen adaptation of Sex and the City – especially in a year with a weak crop of comedy and musical contenders. The Coen Brothers black comedy Burn After Reading may be the picture to beat in this category, and the over-the-top big budget movie-within-a-movie satire Tropic Thunder seems like a good bet for a nomination. The last nomination will likely go to a smaller film. My guess is Charlie Kaufman’s directorial debut Synecdoche, New York will round out the category over Last Chance Harvey (Overture) and Happy-Go-Lucky (Miramax) from legendary British director Mike Leigh.
BEST ACTOR – DRAMA
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon (Universal)
Sean Penn, Milk (Focus)
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount)
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler (Fox Searchlight)
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino (Warner Bros)
ANALYSIS: This is the most crowded and difficult-to-judge category of the year. The sure things seem like Langella, Penn, Pitt and Rourke. I say Eastwood squeezes out longtime character actor Richard Jenkins for The Visitor (Overture) and Rev Road‘s Leonardo DiCaprio. My hunch is that both Hugh Jackman for Australia and Benicio Del Toro for Che (IFC Films) will be left out in the cold. Josh Brolin’s representation attempted to position him in the Best Actor – Comedy or Musical category for his turn as W. (Lionsgate), but the HFPA determined that it would compete as a drama. Bad news for Brolin because I don’t forsee him making the cut in this field. It’s also hard to see Will Smith’s turn in Seven Pounds (Sony) cracking the top 5.
BEST ACTOR – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Dustin Hoffman, Last Chance Harvey (Overture)
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Synecdoche, New York (Sony Classics)
Ben Stiller, Tropic Thunder (Dreamworks/Paramount)
Rickey Gervais, Ghost Town (Dreamworks/Paramount)
George Clooney, Leatherheads (Universal)
ANALYSIS: This is the weakest category on the board. The two Hoffmans – Dustin and Phillip Seymour – seem very safe picks. Ben Stiller is a big star in a well-reviewed and commercially successful film. The last two are very tough calls. Gervais is a wildly entertaining guy (he saved the Emmy Awards show), and Ghost Town was an artistic success (despite dive-bombing at the box office). I’m putting Clooney in the mix only because he’s Clooney – the kind of guy the HFPA likes having at its party. Will Smith in Hancock (Sony) and Seth Rogen in Pineapple Express (Sony) are both dark horses. I would love to see Jason Segal, who wrote and starred in Forgetting Sarah Marshall (Universal), or Paul Rudd from the hilarious Role Models (Universal) sneak in, but they may not have Golden Globe caliber public profiles.
BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA
Meryl Streep, Doubt (Miramax)
Kristin Scott Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long (Sony Classics)
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married (Sony Classics)
Cate Blanchett, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount)
Angelina Jolie, Changeling (Universal)
ANALYSIS: There will be no denying Streep this nomination for Doubt (Miramax), and Thomas, Hathaway and Blanchett seem very locked in as well. The final slot is a bit of a toss-up, but, again, the HFPA loves stars, which probably eliminates Melissa Leo from Frozen River (Sony Classics). I say that the relatively chilly reception for Australia hurts Nicole Kidman and despite Angelina Jolie’s over-the-top one-note performance in Changeling, the idea of having Pitt and Jolie on the red carpet together will be hard for the HFPA to resist. Kate Winslet will likely be squeezed out, so she’ll be forced to settle for a Supporting Actress nod for The Reader.
BEST ACTRESS – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Tina Fey, Baby Mama (Universal)
Emma Thompson, Last Chance Harvey (Overture)
Sarah Jessica Parker, Sex and the City: The Movie (Warner Bros)
Meryl Streep, Mamma Mia (Universal)
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky (Sony Classics)
ANALYSIS: Streep is a certain double-nominee for her musical turn in Mamma Mia, and there’s no way that Golden Globe voters can resist including Sarah Jessica Parker for SATC and Tina Fey for Baby Mama. The likely winner in this category would have been Anne Hathaway for her brilliant, career-changing performance in Rachel Getting Married, but the HFPA decided that the movie would compete as a drama. That opens the door for Sally Hawkins for her memorable work in Happy-Go-Lucky and probably Emma Thompson for Last Chance Harvey. On the outside looking in are Samantha Morton for Synecdoche, New York and Frances McDormand for Burn After Reading.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin, Milk (Focus)
James Franco, Milk (Focus)
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt (Miramax)
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight (Warner Bros)
Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder (Dreamworks/Paramount)
ANALYSIS: The race is for second with Heath Ledger’s performance in The Dark Knight a sure winner. Seymour Hoffman is potentially a double nominee with a second nod for Doubt. Franco is excellent in Milk along with Brolin’s interesting performance as Dan White in that same film. In any other year, Downey Jr. would be a slam dunk winner, but he will still be a nominee. Other possibles include Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road, Ralph Fiennes in The Reader and John Malkovich in Burn After Reading or Changeling. Aside from Ledger, my favorite supporting male performance of 2008 was Eddie Marsan as the comically psychotic driving instructor in Happy-Go-Lucky, but he’s almost certain to be overlooked.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Doubt (Miramax)
Kathy Bates, Revolutionary Road (Paramount)
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona (Weinstein/MGM)
Rosemary DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married (Sony Classics)
Kate Winslet, The Reader (Weinstein)
ANALYSIS: This may be Winslet’s consolation prize after missing a lead actress nom for Revolutionary Road. Adams, Bates and Cruz seem solid, but I wrestled with the last slot. It could be either DeWitt or co-star Debra Winger from Rachel Getting Married, but I think the former’s role on Mad Men will give her the boost she needs. There may be no room here for Benjamin Button‘s Taraji P. Henson or Marisa Tomei from The Wrestler.
BEST DIRECTOR
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Paramount)
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight)
Gus Van Sant, Milk (Focus)
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight (Warner Bros)
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon (Miramax)
ANALYSIS: Fincher is a heavy favorite along with Boyle. This is also a great spot for Van Sant and Nolan. The fifth nomination is a crapshoot. Eastwood is getting a push for Changeling, which is a mistake. He would have a puncher’s chance with Gran Torino. I am going with Ron Howard because of his pedigree, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see John Patrick Shanley for Doubt, Stephen Daldry for The Reader or Sam Mendes for Revolutionary Road.