Paul Krugman, Nobel Prize-winning economist and New York Times columnist, has claimed without evidence that official economic statistics under the incoming Trump administration will be manipulated.
In a recent interview with the New Republic, Krugman said that under the incoming Trump administration, government economic data would be distorted to flatter the president’s policies.
“My guess is by sometime next year, we’re going to be having to look at proxies for what’s actually happening to the economy,” Krugman said, warning that official statistics on issues like the economy and crime could become “corrupted.”
Krugman provided no evidence for this claim. Instead, he draws a dubious historical parallel to the Obama years, when some business leaders alleged that official data—particularly inflation and jobs numbers—were being manipulated. He argues, also without evidence, that those accusations were projections of conservative plans to manipulate data.
“The last time around, back during the Obama years, when there was a lot of inflation truthers claiming that the inflation numbers were being manipulated to make it look like there was less inflation than there was. Such accusations are always projections—it’s what they would do, not what was actually happening,” Krugman said.
At the time, figures like former General Electric CEO Jack Welch claimed that jobs numbers during President Obama’s tenure were “cooked” to bolster his reelection chances. Those accusations were roundly debunked by experts, including Keith Hall, then-head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), who confirmed that data collection is handled by career civil servants operating independently of political influence.
“Even if the U.S. government wanted to manipulate monthly jobs figures, it would be impossible to accomplish, said a former head of the U.S. government’s labor statistics agency,” the Wall Street Journal reported.
Krugman’s conspiracy theory ignores the structural safeguards that make U.S. economic data among the most reliable in the world. Agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau have long-standing traditions of independence, staffed by career professionals who follow rigorous methodologies. The idea that these institutions could be co-opted wholesale without sparking massive outcry from within and outside the government is implausible.
“The notion that any one person—including the president—can influence the data collection, gathering, and analysis does not appreciate the depth and breadth of detail and the rigorous process, run by career government statisticians, with which this information is compiled is complete misplaced,” said Joe Lavorgna, managing director and Chief Economist at SMBC Nikko Securities America.
Spokespeople for the BLS and BEA did not return a request for comment.
Krugman’s warning comes ahead of a Trump presidency that promises significant economic shifts, including new trade policies and potential tax cuts. While disagreements over the direction of policy are expected, accusations of data manipulation introduce a politically charged narrative with little basis in fact.