China Suddenly Delays Release of Economic Data During Communist Party Congress

The Chinese government was scheduled to release its third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report on Tuesday, but the publication was suddenly delayed indefinitely on Monday, without a formal announcement or explanation.

Perhaps not coincidentally, the Chinese Communist Party is currently holding its twice-per-decade national Congress, during which dictator Xi Jinping was coronated for another term in power.

A great deal of anticipation surrounded the GDP report since China’s formerly impressive claims of annual growth abruptly came to a halt in the second quarter of 2022, Reuters noted. Outside economists anticipated 3.4 percent growth in the new report — still weak, but not a catastrophe such as the 0.4-percent growth reported for Q2, when citywide coronavirus lockdowns severely impacted production and retail sales.

Given the level of interest in the report, it seemed suspicious that it would be delayed until further notice, with absolutely no fanfare. The Chinese National Bureau of Statistics simply made a quiet update to its website, eliminating the release of reports on the GDP, retail sales, property sales, and fixed-asset investments from the schedule for Tuesday.

Chinese officials were boasting that the GDP report would show major improvement from Q2 the day before the report was suddenly put on ice. Foreign media outlets were mostly met with silence when they contacted the National Bureau of Statistics to ask about the missing report. An unidentified employee of the bureau told Reuters the delay in publication was “due to adjustment for work arrangements,” but did not explain what that meant.

“On Friday last week, China’s General Administration of Customs had held off on releasing monthly trade figures as scheduled. In that case, too, authorities didn’t offer any public explanation, and didn’t answer phone calls seeking comment,” the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) observed.  

Some analysts, such as Jeremy Stevens of Standard Bank Group, thought the reports were clearly delayed because of the Communist Party Congress but suggested the reason was the Party’s desire to maintain absolute focus on the event, rather than fear the growth numbers would be embarrassingly bad for Xi and the Party.

“People are working 24 hours a day on announcements coming out of the congress and that is where attention and capacity is focused,” Stevens told Bloomberg News, while admitting the delay “isn’t a good look.”

Bloomberg noted the Chinese government made a point of releasing photos that showed employees of the National Statistics Bureau raptly watching Xi give his keynote address to the Communist Party Congress instead of working.

Other economists thought the inexplicably delayed release of crucial data could “cause some uncertainties and cautiousness among investors,” as Ken Cheung of Mizuho Bank Ltd. put it.

“I’ve not come across before a situation where a whole raft of statistical reporting has just been postponed, in nearly half a century of monitoring data releases — not even in times of pestilence and conflict,” George Magnus of the China Center at Oxford told the New York Times (NYT).

The NYT suggested China might have delayed the reports not because they were unexpectedly horrible, but because the consensus estimates of three to 3.5 percent growth might seem underwhelming compared to the Chinese Communist Party’s earlier boasts of reaching 5.5 percent growth for the year. 

Furthermore, the slowdown is largely attributable to China’s insistence on “zero Covid” lockdowns, a policy Xi and his Party adamantly refuse to portray as anything less than total success.